印网友分析为什么中国不能进攻印度(一)

2019.6.29 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

印网友分析为什么中国不能进攻印度(一) 世界看中国-第1张

Why can’t China attack India?
为什么中国不能攻击印度
以下是Quora读者的评论:
Zhang Cheng,studied at China

Rather India should be treated as an important and respected partner between two countries.China receives a lot from India such as Buddhism,its spreading system of governance,tolerance and the rich of cultural exchanges;and now,also we get their technologies.On the other side,India also gets benefited:they get Chinese investments,their economy grows thanked for China’s supports,and the benefits of being invested from China such as Huawei to metro system;or in the past we helped enrich the relationship of two ancient civilizations
A war between India and China will benefit none.Why should it be?Can Pakistan really help China?I don’t think so.Can Nepal?They will rather stand neutrality.Myanmar?They have been at odd recently with both China and India over military conducts and rebels in Shan and Kachin regions.Sri Lanka is too far,too remote,maybe useless.
Rather a good cooperation between China and India is far more than a planned war for nothing
与之相反,印度应该被视为两国之间重要和受尊重的合作伙伴。中国从印度学习了很多,比如佛教,治理,宽容和丰富的文化交流;现在,我们也得到了他们的技术。另一方面,印度也从中受益:他们得到了中国的投资,他们的经济增长得益于中国的支持,也获得了来自中国的投资带来的好处,比如华为和地铁系统;我们过去也促进了两个文明古国的关系
中印之间的战争对谁都没有好处。为什么要有战争呢?巴基斯坦真的能帮助中国吗?我不这么认为。尼泊尔呢?他们宁愿保持中立。缅甸?最近,在掸邦和克钦邦地区的军事行为和叛乱问题上,他们与中国和印度都存在分歧。斯里兰卡太远太偏,可能没用。
中国和印度之间的良好合作远远好过一场毫无意义的战争。

Mostaque Ahmed, former Student at Alpha Beta Science College Nagaon (2014-2016)

China can attack India and take some of its major land probably by cutting chicken’s neck to take NorthEast but why it is not doing so?
Lets analyse the scenarios
Attacking India would mean MAD(mutually assured destruction) for both countries. There are many reason which is preventing China from direct military invasion these are
1. Strategy of India isn’t what it had been during 1962.
2. The diplomatic relationship of India with other countries isn’t what it had been during 1962.
3. China can’t afford a war with a country which has so much of man power, reserved troops, advanced missiles, interceptors and in a bold word a Nuclear State with second strike capability.
4. China knows that a war with India would collapse its economy and business monopoly might once again go to US. It can’t see its destruction of its cities too.
5. China has many rivalry countries. Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan(ROC), South Korea, Tibet all has been a strong enemy of China and will openly support India apart from it there will be no Allies of China(except Pakistan, North korea) in case of war with India.
6. US will jump into the war due to its own interests to gain reginal dominance, which might be a blow for China.
7. Russia will remain silent and will avoid any involvement ,I amn’t sure when India helped Russia, so Russia might support China but will never do openly. Basically it will sell weapons to both the countries.

中国可以进攻印度,占领一些主要的土地,可能通过割据鸡脖子来占领东北部,但为什么不这样做呢?
让我们分析一下。
对两国来说,进攻印度将意味着相互毁灭。中国不会直接军事入侵印度的原因有很多:
1.印度的战略已经不像1962年了。
2.印度与其他国家的外交关系已经不像1962年了。
3.中国无力承受与一个拥有如此多人力、后备部队、先进导弹、拦截器以及一个拥有第二打击能力的核国家开战。
4.中国知道,与印度的战争将摧毁其经济,商业垄断地位可能会再次落到美国头上。
5.中国有许多敌对国家。日本、越南、台湾(中华民国)、韩国都是中国的强敌,他们将公开支持印度。
6.美国会为了自己的利益而参战,以期获得统治地位,这对中国来说可能是一个打击。
7.俄罗斯将保持沉默,避免介入任何一方,我不确定印度什么时候帮助过俄罗斯,所以俄罗斯可能会支持中国,但绝不会公开这样做。基本上俄罗斯只会向这两个国家出售武器。

III

China will forever loose its control over south China sea,Do you think it can stand still after direct confronting with Indian nuclear submarines and Aircraft carrier that are just made to create hell on earth?well I didn’t mention about Japan’s helicopter carrier and US’s aircraft carriers.
So I think India may loose more in war with Pakistan than with China because there will be more Allies ready to help India in a war with china to smash it.
Please note-This is a hypothetical scenario,I amn’t related to any war analysis department.I amjust going to appear my 12th final,so don’t judge the answer from the perspective of a military personnel.
中国将永远失去对南海的控制,你认为在直接对抗印度核潜艇和航空母舰后,中国还能站住脚吗?好吧,我还没有提到日本的直升机航空母舰和美国的航空母舰。
所以我认为印度在与巴基斯坦的战争中失去的可能会比与中国开战更多,因为会有更多的盟友将在中印战争中帮助印度。
请注意-这是一个假设,不涉及任何战争分析部门。我将参加我12年级的期末考试,所以不要从军事人员的角度来评判我的答案。

Ajay Kumar Verma, former GM at Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited

China can’t commit this harakiri. All i.e. India, China & Pakistan will bleed.
The reason for current conflict is:
* China, along with India, is a big regional Power. China does not like this comparison & feels that it has acquired more bullying power.
* China has border disputes with its every neighboring country including Pakistan.
Unfortunately, Pakistan has surrendered & gave away a portion out of the disputed J&K land to China. CPEC/OBOR is emerging out of that. India has objected to it.
What is the Solution to meet the threat of China & Pakistan:
1.a) Ban all imports from China. Develop alternate sourcing even if it is costlier.
2.b) Keep all friendly countries informed of developments. Develop more friends from Neutral & Opposition Group.
3.c) Don’t blink first in the war of Nerves.
4.d) Talk soft but carry a big stick.
5.e) Be fully prepared to meet any eventuality at the borders.
6.) Don’t fire first bullet. Be always ready for coming to table.
7.g) China & Pakistan Bonhomie will not last long. Pakistan will not like to be ruled by Non believers i.e. Chinese. Already they have killed some Chinese workers.
Above a) is most important. Chinese & Pakistani Nuisance will melt away permanently.

中国不能这样做。印度、中国和巴基斯坦都会因此血流成河。
目前冲突的原因是:
*中国和印度都是地区大国。中国不喜欢这种比较&它觉得自己掌握了更多特强凌弱的力量。
*中国与包括巴基斯坦在内的所有邻国都有边界争端。不幸的是,巴基斯坦已经投降并将有争议的J&K地区的一部分割让给了中国。一带一路就是这样产生的。印度对此表示反对。
如何应对中国和巴基斯坦的威胁:
a)禁止从中国进口的一切商品。开发替代资源,即使成本更高。
b)随时向所有友好国家通报事态发展。从中立和反对的国家中发展更多的朋友。
c)在神经战中,不要先示弱。
d)说话要温和,但也要举起大棒。
e)做好充分准备,以防万一。
)不要开第一枪。随时准备上战场。
g)中巴友好不会持久。巴基斯坦不愿意被非信仰者,也就是中国人统治。他们已经杀害了一些中国工人。
以上几点中a)是最重要的。中国和巴基斯坦的麻烦将永远消失。

Sourav Goswami,Founder(2012-present)

Because no country wants their civilians or Soldiers die in any event of a war.More or less the price of war is too high for the families of the soldiers.Leaving aside the economic losses!
For the PLA soldiers,they are the only child of their families,in any event of a war casualty the family will lose their entire family line.
And as for Indian soldiers,we all know how they are so young and some are newly weds,some have new born children.Just imagine,in case of any casualty what would happen to their families?
Instead of war,China and India should work together to resolve all the existing issues and havemutual trust for a beneficial partnership for our countries and the people from both the sides.
If they want to have war,then they must work together to eliminate the threat of terrorism which results in severe casualties.
因为任何国家都不希望自己的平民或士兵在战争中死亡。撇开经济损失不谈!战争的代价对士兵的家属来说太高了。
对于中国解放军战士来说,他们是家里唯一的孩子,在任何情况下,战争的伤亡都将使他们的家庭无以为后。
而对于印度士兵,我们都知道他们非常年轻,有些刚刚完婚,有些刚有了孩子。想象一下,万一有伤亡,他们的家人要怎么办?
中印应该共同努力,而不是通过战争来解决现存的问题,两国应相互信任,为两国和两国人民建立互利的伙伴关系。
如果他们想要战争,那么他们必须共同努力消除造成严重伤亡的恐怖主义威胁。

Silphy George Varghese,lives in Aecs Layout

When we look from military point of view China is more powerful than India at the moment.Is it the only deciding factor?Ask any veteran,they would say number of military hardware or military personnel(including soldiers)can never be a factor.You have to see who attacks whom and the defender will always have the upper hand.
That means if India attacks China,India will be defeated and similarly if China attacks,then China will be defeated.In war theory,it is always said that the attacker must have the number at least 3:1 in its favour.Given the tough border condition between India and China,the communist nation will have to deploy army in at least 10:1 ratio that means China has to deploy 10 soldiers for each Indian soldier.The mountainous geographic profile always give advantage to the defender.
In air power sector also,China has limitation.Its fighter planes will have to undertake flightsfrom Tibet whereas the Indian Air Force can take off from very near to border.Similarly,despite China having more submarines and war vessels,India has the advantage of choking all supplies to China.
从军事角度看,中国目前比印度更强大。这是唯一的决定因素吗?随便问问老兵,他们会说军事装备的数量或军事人员(包括士兵)的数量绝不是决定因素。你必须看看是谁来攻击谁,防守者总是占上风。这意味着如果印度攻击中国,印度就会被打败,同样的,如果中国攻击,中国就会被打败。在战争理论中,攻击者必须拥有至少3:1的数量才能占据有利形势。考虑到印度和中国之间严峻的边境条件,中国不得不以至少10:1的比例来部署军队,这意味着中国必须为每名印度士兵部署10名士兵。多山的地形总是给防守者带来优势。
在空中领域,中国也有局限性。中国的战斗机只能从xz起飞,而印度空军可以从离边境很近的地方起飞。同样,尽管中国拥有更多潜艇和军舰,但印度的优势在于切断了对中国的所有供应。

JICK

Some people think that China may also attack India from its western border while allying thePakistani Army.Here the main point to be noted is that the Indian Army is one of the world’s best professional armies,which has better understanding on its geography of borders.On theother hand,the Chinese Army had never fought an war and in a foreign country like Pakistanits army would be useless.They can only increase number but have to depend upon war tactic of Pakistani Generals.Pakistani Generals are no match to Indian General’s war tactic.
India has a very effective cold start doctrine to which Pakistan has no answer till now.The cold start doctrine is to split Pakistan in to two halves in 24-48 hours and severing all communication between two sides of Pakistan.Thus Pakistan will be clueless if such a cold start doctrine is initiated by India.
The above is an established fact as per many veteran Generals if such a conventional war begins.I don’t think there would be any nuclear war.If a nuclear war happens then all the three countries(India,China and Pakistan)will suffer.
Point is simple,attacking another country is not so easy for whichever reason.India is not Afghanistan or Iraq.Thus China will never attack India for any reason.If there will be a war between India and China,then it will be part of world war-IIⅢ.
有人认为,中国在联合巴基斯坦军队的同时,也可能从其西部边境攻击印度。这里要注意的重点是,印度军队是世界上最好的职业军队之一,他们对边界的地理位置有更好的了解。另一方面,中国军队从来没有打过仗,在像巴基斯坦这样的外国,中国军队是没用的。他们只能增加士兵数量,必须依靠巴基斯坦将军的战争战术。巴基斯坦将军们的战争策略可比不上印度将军。
印度有一个非常有效的冷启动原则,巴基斯坦到目前为止还无法破解。冷启动原则是在24-48小时内把巴基斯坦一分为二,切断巴基斯坦双方的所有通讯。因此,如果这样的冷启动主义是由印度发起的,巴基斯坦将毫无头绪。
如果爆发常规战争,上述事实对许多资深将军来说是确定无疑的。我不认为会发生核战争。如果发生核战争,那么这三个国家(印度、中国和巴基斯坦)都会遭殃。
道理很简单,不管出于什么原因,攻击另一个国家都并非易事。印度不是阿富汗或伊拉克。因此,中国永远不会以任何理由进攻印度。如果印度和中国之间发生战争,那将会是第三次世界太战的一部分。

Karthik Reddy,Passable experience in Indo China relations

I don’t understand why China can’t be content?It is amongst the biggest countries in the world.They already make a lot of money,are almost rivaling the US for world power status.The only inference one can make when it tries to claim new areas as it’s own is”strategic advantage”.It would most likely be for it’s resources or as a bargaining chip in negotiations or for any such arm twisting in future.
This is what happens when there are no internal enemies(parties other that CPP).leaders must create external enimies to make themselves relevant to the Public and give out a impression that the public can’t do without their leadership.
Why can’t countries just care about the well-being of their citizens?Make them rich/happy,build enough deterrence that no one would date raise a finger?
我不明白为什么中国还不知足?它是世界上最大的国家之一。他们已经赚了很多钱,在世界强国地位上几乎可以与美国匹敌。当中国试图将新领域据为己有时,唯一能做出的推论就是“战略优势”。这很可能是为了它的资源,或者作为谈判中的谈判筹码,或者是为了在未来施加这样的压力。
这是没有内部敌人时会发生的情况。领导者必须创造外部环境,使自己与公众息息相关,并给公众留下一种没有他们的领导国家就无法生存的印象。
为什么国家不能只关心公民的福祉?让百姓富有/快乐,建立足够的威慑,没有人敢觊觎。

Vishnu Sekhar,28 Years in India..Myths.Ancient.Middle.Modern India.Love them

It’s not like China can’t attack.China can attack India at any time.But they can’t expect things to be the same as in 1962 and their leadership knows that very well.China often use an intimidation methodology to gain upper hand against it’s neighbors,be it India or some other country.The reasons why China will never initiate a war against India is as below
中国并不是不能进攻。中国可以随时进攻印度。但他们不能指望事情会和1962年一样,他们的领导人对此非常清楚。无论是印度还是其他国家,中国经常使用恐吓手段来取得对邻国的优势。中国永远不会对印度发动战争的原因如下:

1. The mighty Himalayas. The same mountains which rescued India is 1962 as well. The war of 1962 started on an October and ended in November, the reason was the heavy winter on Himalayas. Chinese forces understood that they will isolated within no matter of time if they continue the war so they backed off leaving the places they took in the war. The same thing will happen now as well, you cannot fight a war on Himalayas, it’s damn deadly.
2. The trading, India and China are heavily interlinked with Global trade. They are the second and third largest economies in the world and holds atleast 10-20% of world population. Both countries have a pie on the other’s growth especially China has a bigger pie on India considering China is the manufacturing capital of world. Chinese government never wants to lock it horns with India in an open war. They might use media to intimidate as told earlier but chances of a war, that’s almost zero.
3. Potential World War, the moment China starts a war on India, it will escalate damn quickly.Various factor will come into play. America will move their Naval fleet to South China sea with assistance from Japan. Considering the American movement, Russia will quickly make their army ‘ ready to go’. North Korea and Pakistan will team up with China and the very moment when North Korea or Pakistan involves, then US involves directly into the war. Europe will mostly stand out of this unless there is a pressure from US to involve. Russia will take a neutral stand initially but can join the war at any time. While India will be facing direct war both from East, West and North sides, China will be facing from South, from South China Sea and probably from North(Russia). Overall, world powers don’t allow this to happen as it will ruin the world economy.
4. Sensible Governments, Majority of the issue is being over projected by media. On a higher level, governments of both countries are highly sensible not to start a war. They knows how to resolve these matters even though it goes out of hand sometimes.
Hope I was able to answer the question properly.. Enjoy Life. Be Altruistic!!

1.强大的喜马拉雅山脉。1962年拯救印度的也是这个山脉。1962年的战争开始于10月,结束于11月,原因正是喜马拉雅山的严冬。中国军队明白,如果他们继续战争,他们将在任何时间内被孤立,所以他们退出了他们在战争中占领的地方。同样的事情现在也会发生,你不能在喜马拉雅山上打仗,这是致命的。
2.贸易、印度和中国与全球贸易紧密相连。它们是世界第二大和第三大经济体,拥有至少10-20%的世界人口。考虑到中国是世界制造业之都,两国都在对方的经济增长上占有一席之地,特别是中国在印度的份额更大。中国从来不想在公开战争中与印度发生冲突。他们可能会像之前所说的那样利用媒体进行恐吓,但发生战争的可能性几乎为零。
3.潜在的世界大战,一旦中国对印度开战,事态将迅速升级。各种因素将发挥作用。在日本的帮助下,美国将把海军舰队转移到南海。考虑到美国的行动,俄罗斯将很快让他们的军队“准备好出发”。朝鲜和巴基斯坦将与中国合作,一旦朝鲜或巴基斯坦卷入战争,美国就会直接卷入战争。除非美国施加压力,让欧洲参与进来,否则欧洲基本上不会参与。俄罗斯最初将采取中立立场,但可以随时参战。印度将面临来自东部、西部和北部的直接战争,而中国将面临来自南部、商中国海,可能还有北部(俄罗斯)的战争。总的来说,世界强国不允许这种情况发生,因为它将破坏世界经济。
4.明智的政府,大多数问题都被媒体过度渲染了。在更高的层面上,两国政府都非常明智,不会发动战争。他们知道如何解决这些问题,即便事态偶尔会失控。
希望我能正确地回答这个问题.….享受生活.…不要有私心!!!

Gunjan Jhamb,Proud Indian.

Let’s assume that you own a shop selling an array of products.Your neighbor is one of your biggest customers,and is also influential enough to shape the opinions of other customers that you have.
You love owning property,so much so that you do not hesitate from forcibly encroaching upon others’land.
Would you my dear friend,fight with one of your largest customers to gain his piece of landand lose the money that you earn from him,for lifetime?The revenues that you earn from him surely outweigh the price of his plot of land.
China is the shopkeeper in the example above.India is it’s neighbor.
Back in 1962,neither was China an economy even remotely as big as it is now,nor was it so heavily dependent on India for sustaining its exports.India had fewer friends back then,now our Prime Minister is at good terms with almost all international leaders.
假设您拥有一家销售许多产品的商店。你的邻居是你最大的客户之一,也有足够的影响力来影响你的其他客户的意见。
你喜欢拥有财产,甚至不惜强占他人的土地。
我亲爱的朋友,你愿意和你最大的客户之一为获得他的那块土地而战吗?你从他那里所赚的,比他那块地的价值还高呢。
中国就是上面这个例子中的店主。印度就是这个邻居。
回到1962年,中国经济规模远没有现在这么大,也没有如此严重地依赖印度维持出口。那时印度的盟国很少,现在我们的总理与几乎所有的国际领导人都关系匪浅。

Madhur Khanna, Believes in India

Ofcourse China can attack India! The real question amongst all nations is simply the question Why?
Why attack India?
1. India has the second largest territorial army after China only. But in addition to this, India has the strategic support of Bhutan and Nepal in the current conflict zone of Doklam tri-junction.
2. India is not an inferior power. India and China both are nuclear states which means that in the event of even initiation of war, other countries will try their level best to inhibit this scenario as it would set up a possible scenario for WW-3.
3. India is very much ready to take on China in the south China sea. The recently conducted India-Japan-USA Malabar Drill in Bay of Bengal is a straight warning signal to China.
4. Pakistan as an ally to China is actually pretty weak on the western Frontier against India, as witnessed in history.
5. China is already in bad terms with Myanmar, Vietnam and Japan which will prove to be non participative in the war, if not an ally for India and will surely try their level best to check the advance of China on all borders.
All these points apart, Yes China can attack India. But it won’t be a prudent option when weighed against diplomacy as a solution. And as our honorable defence minister Arun Jaitley quoted,”We are not the India of 1962″.

中国当然可以进攻印度!所有国家之间真正的问题只是为什么?
为什么要进攻印度?
1.印度拥有仅次于中国的第二大陆军。但除此之外,印度在目前冲突地区洞朗三角区还有不丹和尼泊尔的战略支持。
2.印度不是个弱国。印度和中国都是核国家,这意味着即使爆发战争,其他国家也会尽最大努力抑制这种情况,因为这可能会成为第三次世界大战的导火索。
3.印度已经做好了在南中国海挑战中国的准备。最近在孟加拉湾举行的印日美马拉巴尔军演就是对中国的直接警告信号。
4.历史证明,巴基斯坦作为中国的盟友,在与印度的西部边境上相当脆弱。
5.中国与缅甸、越南和日本的关系很糟糕,如果不是印度的盟友,缅甸、越南和日本不会参与这场战争,而且肯定会尽最大努力遏制中国在所有边界上的进展。
除了这些,是的,中国可以进攻印度。但在权衡外交手段作为解决方案时,这不是一个审慎的选择。正如我们尊敬的国防部长阿伦·要特利所说,“我们已经不是1962年的印度了”。

Keshev Jaiswal

Simple,deployment is almost impossible,though PLA has around 68 division but it main concern is in east not west.
To defeat India it needs to deploy atlest 45-50 division but that make China an open park for Russian,Mangols,Vietnam and Japan.
And what it get in return just area about 100 to 400 sq km,if it defeat Indian army and force them to retrat.And then it can’t afford to fight even Mangols forget Taiwan and Japan and USA.
The only terrain where India is in disadvantage is SIALKOT sector,Pakistan but for that China has to take its army to Pakistan and would Pakistan agree for that or not and then what consequences it has to face
很简单,军事部署几乎是不可能完成的,尽管解放军有大约68个师,但它主要关注的是东方而不是西方。
要打败印度,中国至少需要部署45-50个师,但这会使中国在面对俄罗斯、曼格尔、越南和日本时十分脆弱。
如果中国打败印度军队,迫使印度撤退,那么它得到的回报只有100到400平方公里的土地。然后连蒙古人都打不过,更不用提台湾、日本和美国了。
印度唯一处于劣势的地区是锡亚尔科特区,巴基斯坦,但为此,中国必须向巴基斯坦派造军队,巴基斯坦会不会同意,会面临什么后果?

Adrian Lau,studied Civil Engineering

It is simply not a Chinese way to deal things,frontal assault?fist to fist?showing weakness is allowed as long as you can make it back in later time,furthermore,weapons are not limited to military weapons.
Although it is not a big deal,it is merely a political roadshow,but prolonged standoff where Indian trespassed a psychological red line,operation to 1962 scale might happen.PRC always have tendency to do things out of expectation,at least world expectation.
Military operation always being the last option,because war means losses,at cost of material and lives.
Only weapons that reach your target and achieve desired effects can be called weapons,and weapons are not necessary must claim human lives.
Back to question,it is not they cant,just leaders will start work behind the scenes,before letting you know.If want a deal,negotiate under table;if want to fight,element of surprise,simple.
这根本不是中国人处理事情的方式,正面攻击?拳头对拳头?而且,武器也不限于军事武器。
虽然这不是什么大事,只是一场政治路演,但在印度越过心理红线的长期对峙中,可能会发生1962年规模的行动。中国总是会做一些出乎意料的事情。
军事行动都是最后的选择,因为战争意味着损失,以物质和生命为代价。
只有能达到目标并达到预期效果的武器才能被称为武器,而武器并不是必须要夺去人的生命的。
回到这个问题上,并不是他们不能进攻,只是领导们会在让你知道之前就开始幕后操作。如果想达成协议,就私下谈判;如果想战斗,就要突袭,很简单。

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