Quora:80年代GDP还是相当的,为何中国GDP突然是印度的5倍了?

2019.7.6 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

Quora:80年代GDP还是相当的,为何中国GDP突然是印度的5倍了? 世界看中国-第1张

Why is China’s GDP 5 times that of India?Is it because India is a democracy?
为什么中国的GDP有印度的5倍之多?难道是因为印度是个皿煮制国家?
以下是Quora读者的评论:
Shankara Narayanan Sethuraman

When we look at the list for GDP estimated based on PPP,the order is China->EU->USA->India.This is a much fairer estimate as it corrects for local economic realities.There are many amenities that are cheaper in India like food and medicine than in the USA and the EU.The average Indian’s life is easier to understand only when the PPP estimate is used.
如果我们看一下基于购买力平价估算的GDP排名,中国->欧盟->美国->印度。这是一个更公平的预估,因为它修正了当地的经济情况。与美国和欧盟相比,印度有许多康乐设施,比如食品和药品等都更加便宜。用购买力平价估算,才更容易理解普通印度人的生活。

If we look at the GDP figures till the 1980s,India and China were pretty much on the same boat.The divergence occurred in 1991.So what is special about that year.Well,any lame Indian would reply:1991 Indian economic crisis.Our economy collapsed in 1991.We had to rebuild from scratch in 1991 and open up our markets and handle the pressures that resulted from that.That and continuous political instability for most of the 90s the gap kept widening.
While 99-04 saw stability and growth,the govt.that came in 04 was a quagmire of it’s ownkind.By 2012,they squandered all the gains made till 07 meaning that in 2014,China’s GDP was over twice ours.That’s hard to catch up to though we are on it full throttle from 2014.
Let’s see where we are in 2024.
如果我们看看上世纪80年代以前的GDP数据,就会发现印度和中国几乎处于同一条船上。1991年中印走上了不同的发展之路。那一年有什么特别之处呢?随便一个印度人都会回答:1991年印度发生了经济危机。我们的经济在1991年崩溃了。1991年,我们不得不从零开始重振经济,开放市场,应对由此带来的压力。在90年代的大部分时间里,政治局势持续动荡,贫富差距不断扩大。
虽然1999-2004年经济稳定增长,但2004年的政府却陷入了自己的泥潭。到2012年,他们挥霍掉了截至2007年的所有经济成果,2014年中国的GDP是我们的两倍多。虽然我们2014年开始全力以赴,但很难赶上。
让我们看看2024年会怎样

Ramkumar Natarajan,Author of Books on Caste,History and Harappa Civilization.

China has become the world’s second largest economy,with Japan surrendering its 42-year-olc ranking after its economy shrank in the final months of 2010.China has claimed since as early as 2008 that it was imminently poised to become,the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s GDP data is haunted by controversy,with widespread doubts about its accuracy.Neither does India’s.With the introduction of a new formula to compute GDP,India’s GDP growth rose to 7%from from around 5%.Fudging of data to attract investment seems common nowadays.China alone is not the culprit.Yet,the fact is China is now in a comfortable position with foreign reserves.The total sum of the reserves is regularly announced by thecentral bank.At the end of September 2015,the foreign-exchange reserves of China were US $3.51trillion,while,at the end of January 2016,they stood at US $ 3.23 trillion,whereas India’s reserve stands at US $ 0.42 trillion in 2017.
中国已成为世界第二大经济体,日本由于经济萎缩,在2010年的最后几个月失去了其维持了42年的名次。早在2008年,中国就宣称自己即将成为世界第二大经济体。
中国的GDP数据饱受争议,人们普遍怀疑其准确性。印度的GDP也有这个问题。随着计算GDP的新公式的引入,印度的GDP增长从5%左右上升到7%。如今,捏造数据吸引投资似乎司空见惯。中国并不是唯一这么做的国家。然而,中国目前在外汇储备方面更具优势。中央银行定期公布外汇储备总额。2015年9月底,中国外汇储备为3.51万亿美元,2016年1月底为3.23万亿美元,而2017年印度外汇储备为0.42万亿美元。

Before the Chinese government introduced several economic growth reforms in 1979, the average annual real GDP growth rate in China was estimated at 5.3%(from 1960-1978)according to the Congressional Research Service. In 2010 the annual growth rate stood at10.4%.
As of 2017, China’s nominal GDP by Expenditure approach is 82.7122 trillion Chinese Yuan or $12.84 trillion US dollars. China’s nominal GDP surpassed that of Italy in 2000, France in 2005, the United Kingdom in 2006 and that of Germany in 2007, before overtaking Japan in 2010, making China the world’s second largest economy after the United States. But adjusting for purchasing power parity(PPP), China become the world’s second largest economy as early as 1999 surpassing Japan, and has toppled America to become the biggest economy since 2014.
China has already lifted more than 500 million people out of poverty after three decades of economic reforms on the mainland as China’s poverty rate fell from 88 percent in 1981 to 6.5percent in 2012, as measured by the percentage of people living on the equivalent of US $1.90 or less per day in 2011 purchasing price parity terms. As of 2017, only 3.3% of Chinese population was BPL. Targeted poverty reduction programs, in place nationally since 1986, played an important role. The central government ruled in 2015 that rural residents with an annual income of less than 2,800 yuan(US $ 427) were living in absolute poverty. The previous criteria set in 2011 was 2,300 yuan. Even as basic poverty is eradicated, there will be relative poverty in different sections of society, which will need to be addressed by the Chinese authorities. But what they achieved so far is a miracle. As of 2013,21.92% of Indians live below the poverty line.

在1979年中国实施经济增长改革之前,据国会研究服务处估计,中国的实际GDP年平均增长率为5.3%(1960年至1978年)。2010年,中国经济年均增长10.4%。
截至2017年,中国名义国内生产总值(GDP)按支出计算为827122万亿元人民币,约合12.84万亿美元。2000年,中国名义GDP超过意大利,2005年超过法国,2006年超过英国,2007年超过德国,2010年超过日本,成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。但根据购买力平价(PPP)进行调整后,中国早在1999年就超过日本成为世界第二大经济体,并在2014年取代美国成为世界第一大经济体。
中国已成功地让超过5亿人摆脱了贫困,大陆在经历了30年的经济改革后,贫困率从1981年的88%下降到了2012年的6.5%。截至2017年,中国只有3.3%的贫困人口。自1986年以来在全国范围内实施的有针对性的减贺计划发挥了重要作用。2015年,中央政府规定,年收入低于2800元(427美元)的农村居民生活在绝对贫困中。此前在2011年设定的标准是2300元。在消除基本贫困的同时,社会各阶层也会出现相对贫困,这需要中国来解决。但他们迄今所取得的成就完全就是奇迹。截至2013年,21.92%的印度人生活在贫困线以下。

India accounted for the largest number of people living below international poverty line in2013,with 30 per cent of its population under the $1.90-a-day poverty measure,the World Bank said.India accounts for one in three of the poor population worldwide,the world body said in its inaugural edition of the report”Poverty and Shared Prosperity’,according to which extreme poverty worldwide continued to fall despite the global economy’s”under-performance.”India is by far the country with the largest number of people living under theinternational US $ 1.90-a-day poverty line,more than 2.5 times as many as the 86 million in Nigeria,which has the second-largest population of the poor worldwide.
The benefits of Chinas sustained economic growth have admirably trickled down.Accelerating industrialization and urbanization in a country of over one billion people has transformed a large number of the agricultural surplus labor in the countryside into urban employment in China.Between 1978 and 2015,the number of people in non-farm jobs as a percentage of total employment increased from 29%to 70%.This change also occurred in poor areas and to poor households.Yet the disparities between the rural and urban population do exist but not as alarming as is projected by some people.
There is nothing much to suspect China’s growth;it is as good as or as bad as India
世界银行表示,2013年,生活在国际贫困线以下的人口数量最多的是印度,该国30%的人口生活在每日1.9美元的贫困线之下。该世界机构在其首份报告《贫困与共同繁荣》中表示,印度占全球贫困人口的三分之一。报告称,尽管全球经济“表现不佳”,但全球极端贫困人口仍在减少。到目前为止,印度是每天生活费不足1.9美元的国际贫困线以下人口最多的国家,是尼日利亚的2.5倍多。尼日利亚是全球贫困人口第二多的国家,有8600万贫困人口。
中国经济持续增长的好处逐渐显现出来。在一个拥有10多亿人口的国家,工业化、城镇化进程加快,大量农村农业剩余劳动力进入城镇就业。1978年至2015年,非农业就业人口占总就业人口的比例从29%上升到70%。这种变化也发生在贫困地区和贫困家庭。然而,农村和城市人口之间的差距确实存在,但并不像一些人所预测的那样令人担忧。

NKr,PhD,MBA Operations Research

I am of Indian origin.
First,let me share my opinion on the GDP(fake or real)discussion.There are liberties taken by both countries in the calculation.There are multiple discussions about this in reasonable newspapers and forums.
However,any over visiting China and India can see vast differences in infrastructure,enterprises ecso the ratio ie,4-50is probabyaccurate~
IMHO,there are 5 reasons for the difference
我是印度人。
首先,我来谈谈我对GDP的看法吧。两国在计算时都有自由。在报纸和论坛上有很多关于这方面的讨论。
但任何去过中国和印度的人都能看到两国在基础设施、企业等方面的巨大差异,所以这个差距(即4-5倍有可能是准确的。
依我之见,造成这种差异的原因有5个:

1. Chinese have always invested heavily on infrastructure. Chinese history is full of instances which talk about efforts to connect all parts of the kingdom. This makes their overall supply chain much more efficient. The New York times had a great article on this
2. Easier for foreign companies to invest. The willingness of foreign companies to manufacture here is significant when they see the infrastructure available in China. It is probably the best in the region with the possible exception of Korea. Japan is in another league..
3. Culturally, the Chinese are much less risk averse. There is obviously higher reward when higher risks are taken.
4. The work culture.A considerable portion of the Indian growth is due to the increased productivity of the white collar workers. In China, the blue collar workers have provided a huge boost as well.I don’t have the figures handy but the jump in productivity of Chinese blue collar workers is over 10x the productivity increase of Indian blue collar workers(Please correct this il incorrect;I could not find the source)
5. Finally, IMHO, the fact that India is a democracy does sometimes hamper development. In China, the government does not have to wait as long to push through a policy. In contrast, even the best intentioned and clearly optimal policy in India has to go through a bureaucratic process and get sign off(implicit or explicit) from regional and local powers. Like it or not, this is one of the trade offs of living in a democracy and having individual freedoms.
I am not smart enough to state that one is better than the other. They are different environments and I hope that I have highlighted some differences.

1.中国人一直在大举建设基础设施。中国历史上有很多这样的例子,讲的是连接五洲大地的努力。这使得他们的整个供应链更加高效。《纽约时报》对此有一篇文章写得很好
2.外国公司更容易在当地进行投资。当外国公司看到中国现有的基础设施时,它们在中国生产的意愿就变得非常强烈。中国可能是该地区除了韩国外最好的投资目的地了。日本归属于另一个联盟.…
3.从文化上讲,中国人的风险厌恶程度要低得多。风险更高时,回报显然也会更高。
4.工作文化。印度经济增长在很大程度上要归功于白领工人生产率的提高。在中国,蓝领工人也起到了巨大的推动作用。虽然我手头没有相关数据,但中国蓝领工人的生产率增幅是印度蓝领工人的10倍以上(如果我说的不对,请纠正;我还没找到数据来源
5.最后,依我之见,印度是一个皿煮国家,这一事实有时确实会阻碍发展。在中国,政府不必浪费时间就能立即推行一项政策。相比之下,即使是印度最好、最优的政策,也必须经过官僚程序,并(含蓄或明确地)得到地区和地方权力机构的批准。不管你喜不喜欢,这是生活在皿煮国家和拥有个人自由之间的一种权衡。
我还没有那么聪明,能说清到底谁比谁好。它们的环境非常不同,希望我已经把一些不同之处说清楚了。

Vivek Nair,works at Cisco

There are lot of ways the GDP of a country can be increased.Take a lot of debt and then spendit all into constructions.This will show up as a huge GDP growth.Use that data and advertise your growth story.Open up your economy while you are at it.Money will start pouring in to earn profits of such a fast growth.
一个国家的GDP可以通过很多方式提高。背负巨额债务,把钱都花在建设上。这将带来巨大的GDP增长。利用这些数据可以宣传经济增长。开放经济。资金将开始涌入,以赚取快速增长的利润。

Peter Kvint,former Omnilog

A parliamentary democracy seems most democratic if there are 400 voters.
India’s problems are:
1.Oppression of women.
2.lliteracy.
3.Language problems.India has many languages and the political language a European language.China also has several languages,but since the writing language is a sign system,this does not cause so many problems.
4.Infrastruktur.Kina is filled with roads and fast trains.
5.History.China has been a centralized state long before England.
如果有400名选民,议会皿煮制似乎是最皿煮的。
印度的问题在于:
1.压迫女性。
2.文盲。
3.语言问题。印度有多种语言。中国也有多种语言,但由于书写语言是一种符号系统,所以并未造成那么多问题。
4.基础设施。中国的公路和高速列车十分发达。
5.历史。中国早在英国之前就是一个中央集全国家。

Arpit Tambi,My 2 Cents

I believe it’s a combination of several factors-efficiency&willingness along with nepotism&equal opportunity.
Indians still have the slavery mindset beautifully nurtured by the elite to keep them so.In effect,this keeps people poor,helpless and dependent on their leaders and employers.
我认为这是几个因素的组合——效率和意愿,裙带关系和平等机会。
印度人仍然拥有由精英们精心培养的奴隶心态。实际上这让人们变得贫穷、无助、依赖他们的领导和雇

Niranjan Mehta,studied at Gemological Institute of America,Carlsbad,CA

It is Obvious that China has Massive consumer product manufacturing base.i assume almost 60-70%world consumer products are now being manufactured in china.No matter Rural china has worst development compare to India.But urban china is far far ahead of India.this is also thanks to USA.this thing did not happen over night but since 1972 onward thank to Richard Nixon and kissinger
很明显,中国拥有庞大的消费品生产基地。我认为,目前全球近60%至70%的消费品是在中国生产的。
无论如何,中国农村的发展比印度差。但中国的城市发展远远领先于印度。这也要感谢美国。这件事不可能一夜之间发生的,但自1972年以来,我要感谢理查德·尼克松和基辛格。

Ravi Garkoti,studied at Birla Institute of Applied Sciences

India being a democracy is definitely a big reason.Every decision goes through multiple consultation and scrutiny process and you have to keep everybody in good humor for even a minor thing.This takes lot of time and efforts and hence delay.
Another reason is that India liberalized its economy quite late in comparison to China and hence the difference.
印度是一个皿煮国家,这无疑是一个重要原因。每一个决定都要经过多次咨询和仔细审查,即使是一件小事,也要让每个人保持高兴。这需要花费大量的时间和精力,因此会造成拖延。
另一个原因是,与中国相比,印度经济的改革开放较晚,因此尚存差距。

Vikas Sheke,SrMKT Man

China is better organised as a nation,it is seriously focused on key points to attract investments and opened the market.China has far less diversity or is suppressed which helps governance.Chinese officials do not compromise in infrastructure,investment facilities,instead operate in top priority but at cost of human rights,world is aware of chinees poverty and plight of workers working in extremely hazardous conditions.but China is now part of developed world.
India is extremely diverse,a peoples democracy which is basic hurdle is setting basicinfrastructure.People revolt against any big project that can affect there livelihood overlooking greater good of entire nation,political parties too take the advantage of the sam Govt has to spend enormous time and money in building infrastructure in India.
India need not follow 1 to 1 Chinese model,India is also positively growing and will grow,梅India need not even compete with china but should cooperate with China on trade,both India and china are equal in terms of size,population,history,culture and are neighbours too.
India too has some leverage than china,in IT,auto sector,agriculture,space science,medicine,engineering.Heavy industries are equally good as Chinese
中国作为一个国家组织得更好,它非常注重吸引投资和开放市场的关键点。中国官员在基础设施、投资设施等方面不会退让。全世界都知道中国存在贫困问题,工人工作环境极差,但中国现在已跻身发达国家之列。
印度是一个极其多样化的国家,人民皿煮的基本障碍是建立基础设施。人民反对任何会影响他们生活的大项目,忽视了整个国家更大的利益。
印度不需要完全照搬中国模式,印度也积极发展和增长,印度甚至无需跟中国竞争,但应该在贸易方面跟中国合作,印度和中国在国土面积、人口、历史、文化等方面都颇为相似,也是友邦国家。
印度在IT、汽车、农业、空间科学、医药和工程等领域的影响力也比中国大。重工业和中国一样好。

Subhash Mathur,Free thinker.Former civil servant.Sportsperson

That’s because India has open policies openly arrived at.
Yet India needs to improve it’s productivity and catch up with China within the democratic set And we are trying to do just that.Wait for a few years more
这是因为印度是皿煮国家,制定了公开的政策。
然而,印度需要提高生产率,并在皿煮体制内赶上中国。
我们正在努力做到这一点。再耐心等上几年吧。

Robbie Jena,Industrial Ecosystems and Strategy Architect

Why is China’s GDP 5times that of India?Is it because India is a democracy?
Because,China got the Engineering Data.Indians did not and stayed with Economic Data-you know,those Economist…
EDIT:India went to sleep..China has about 1450 GW Power while India has about 350 GW of Power.It has nothing to do with Democracy..USA pushed to both..
为什么中国的GDP是印度的5倍?因为印度是个皿煮国家吗?
因为,中国采用的是工程数据。印度人没有这样做,而是坚持使用经济数据——你知道的,那些经济学家……
编辑:印度沉睡了….中国大约有1450兆瓦的电力,而印度大约有350兆瓦的电力。这和皿煮没有任何关系..…

Pavel Astakhov,studied Computer Networking&Financial Management(2003)

The United States has invested trillions of dollars in China and an annual trade imbalance of about a trillion dollars in favor of China.
So it is not difficult for China to be the largest economy in the world.
To India West was not given no technology,no production,no money.India itself can both exist.
美国已在中国投资数万亿美元,每年美国对中国有约一万亿美元的贸易逆差
因此,中国成为世界上最大的经济体并非难事。
对印度而言,西方没有投入技术,没有生产,没有资金。印度本身就可以存在。

Atul Chaudhary,Civil Services Aspirant

absolutely not,USA is the a democratic country and world’s biggest economy but it’s may be partially true because in china there is no opponent against the Chinese communist government hence the chinese gov takes dicisions for the development in future whereas in india gov takes decision keeping next election in his mind.
绝对不是,美国是一个皿煮国家,世界最大的经济体,但它可能是部分正确,因为中国内部没有反对党,因此中国为了未来的发展做出决策,而印度政府始终将大选置于重要的位置。

Aurobindo Ghosh

Indians are lazy know-it-alls and Chinese are hardworkers.That’s why India runs to daddy,USA and Israel,for every issue with China.
印度人懒惰,自以为无所不知,而中国人努力工作。这就是为什么印度在遇到跟中国有关的每一个问题上都得向美国和以色列等老爹求助。

Rajkumar Ukkuturi,studied Engineering

It is one of the reason for this but not the main reason.
Democracy is not a great option when there are lot of people who suffer from religion facts and illiteracy.
这是原因之一,但并非主要原因。
当很多人还在遭受宗教和文盲的折磨时,皿煮并不是一个好的选择。

Arun Bhatia,studied at Univ of MD

I am originally from India.I went to China 2015 in a guided tour.I still have great memories of the beautiful Chinese people,their cities,towns and wonderful people.
Why are you trying to break that beautiful image?Go sleep!
我来自印度。2015年我跟随导游去了中国。我仍然对美丽的中国人民、他们的城市、城镇和优秀的人民有着美好的记忆。
你为什么要打破那个美丽的形象?赶紧洗洗睡吧!

Naby Souleymane Bangoura

Yes it’s because India is a democracy so it takes longer for laws and bills to go into effect.
Also China had a head start on India by 15-18 years
是的,因为印度是一个皿煮国家,所以法律和法案需要更长的时间才能生效。此外,中国领先印度15-18年。

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