Quora:为什么那么多印度人预测印度GDP将在不久的将来超过中国?

2019.7.18 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

Quora:为什么那么多印度人预测印度GDP将在不久的将来超过中国? 世界看中国-第1张

Why are there so many Indians that predict India’GDP will surpass China’s GDP in the near future?
为什么有那么多印度人预测印度GDP将在不久的将来超过中国?
以下是Quor者的评论:
Subodh Mathur,Ph.D Economics,Massachusetts Institute of Technology(1980)

It is excessively wishful thinking.China’s current GDP is around 5 times as large as India’s GDP.China GDP is around $ 11 trillion,India around $ 2.2 trillion.
Suppose,India grows at 14%-not yet achieved.In 20 years,India’s GDP will be $ 30 trillion.
Let China grow at 5 percent for 20 years.Then,it s GDP will also be $ 30 trillion.
The India growth rate above is a dream rate.Will happen in our dreams only.
So,we will be beat China in our dreams.Enjoy the dream.Because it will end when you wake up.
这是过于一厢情愿的想法。中国目前的GDP大约是印度GDP的5倍。中国GDP约为11万亿美元,印度约为2.2万亿美元
假设印度经济增长率为14%-目前尚未达到,20年后,印度的GDP将达到30万亿美元。
假设中国在未来20年保持5%的增长。20年后,中国的GDP也将达到30万亿美元。
印度的这个增长率只能是痴想。只会出现在我们的梦里。
所以,我们将打败中国仅仅是我们的梦想。好好享受这一场美梦吧。因为梦醒来时一切就都结束了。

Even if India cannot get ahead of China in 10 years,it is sessential that India aim to push its growth rate higher.This means 10-12 percent per year for at least 10 years-all of 2020-2030.It’s actually quite doable.Sure,there are disputes about exaclty what India has to do-there will always be such disputes among policy advisers.
Here are my ideas about the four crticial areas India must act on.
One area where significant change is needed is in the functioning of government owned banks and power companies.At present,the poor performance of these banks and utilities is a significant barrier to faster economic growth in India
India’s banking system is still domina ted by government banks,which do not provide high quality by pumping in more money into them,but this is not a long-turn solution.What isneeded are major changes in the management and operation of these banks.But,there’s no political will to do this.bank customers.Further,they often make their loans on non-commercial considerations.As a result,about 12 percent of all bank loans in India have become”non-performing assets,”meaning these loans are unlikely to be repaid in full.
即使印度不能在10年内超过中国,印度也有必要提高经济增长率。这意味着至少10年内——在2020年到2030年间每年达到10%到12%的增长。这实际上是可行的。当然,在印度必须做什么这个问题上确实存在争议——政策顾问之间总会有这样的争议。
以下是我对印度在四个领域必须采取行动的看法。
需要进行重大改革的一个领域是政府拥有的银行和电力公司的运作。目前,这些银行和公用事业公司的糟糕表现是印度经济快速增长的一个重大障碍。
印度的银行系统仍然由政府银行主导,政府银行不能通过向银行注入更多资金来提供高质量的服务,但这不是一个长期的解决方素。现在需要的是对这些银行的管理和经营方式进行重大改革。但是,没有这样做的政治意愿。此外,他们的贷款往往是出于非商业考虑。因此,印度大约12%的银行贷款变成了”负资产”,这意味着这些贷款不太可能全额偿还。

India’s power supply is still erratic and unreliable.This hurts industry and also farmers who use electricity to pump up irrigation water.India’s power generation companies perform well.The problem is mainly due to India’s badly-run power distribution companies.These utilities are owned by India’s State governments,and not by India’s Central(i.e.,Federal)government.Plans to improve these companies have not yet brought about good results.Again,there is no political will to shake up the management and operation of these utilities.
Another area where significant changes are needed is agriculture.India’s agriculture is more or less stagnant.The last major technological breakthrough was the so-called”Green Revolution”of the 1960s,which allowed India to become self-sufficient in food.Since then,there have been only minor improvements.As a result,the growth rate of agricultural output is much lower than the growth rates in other sectors.
印度的电力供应仍然不稳定、不可靠。这不仅对工业不利,也对用电灌溉用水的农民不利。印度的电力公司表现良好。这个问题主要是由于配电公司经营不善。这些公用事业由印度邦政府所有,而不是由印度中央政府(即联邦政府)所有。改善这些公司的计划尚未产生好的结果。同样,政府没有意愿来重组这些公用事业的管理和运营。
另一个需要进行重大变革的领域是农业。印度的农业基本停滞不前。上个重大的技术突破是20世纪60年代所谓的”绿色革命”,它使印度实现了粮食自给。从那时至今,只实现了一些微不足道的进步。因此,农业产出的增长率远远低于其他部门的增长率。

A third area where changes are needed is labor laws.India’s laws make it difficult for large.industrial firms to fire workers.Further,there is often friction between workers and managers So,large firms are reluctant to hire additional full-time workers.Instead,they hire short-term contract workers or automate their production process.For example,auto manufacturing in.India is highly automated.Further,some small or medium firms,who are exempt from these labor laws,may prefer to not grow so that they can avoid the problems faced by large firms
Changes in labor laws and practices are controversial,because they are often seen as being against workers.These changes would diminish the power of the few workers who are currently employed.But,the trade-off is that many more workers would be able to get jobs in large industrial firms.
需要改革的第三个领域是劳动法。印度的法律使得大型工业公司很难解雇工人。此外,工人和经理之间经常有摩擦,所以大公司不愿意雇佣全职工人。相反,他们雇佣短期合同工或使生产过程自动化。例如,印度的汽车制造业实现了高度自动化。此外,一些不受这些劳动法约束的中小企业可能宁愿安于现状,以避免大企业所面临的问题。
劳工法和惯例的改变是有争议的,因为它们经常被视为对工人不利。这些变化将削弱目前就业的少数工人的力量。但是,将换来更多的工人能够在大型工业公司找到工作。

Finally,India must improve its schools.Most of the government run,girls do not get the same educational opportunities as boys.Many poor parents will sacrifice their own quality of life to send their sons to private schools.But,some of them may not pay for their girls to private school,leaving them stuck in poor quality government schools.son schools in India are run by State governments.These schools do not charge tuition fees.However,even poor parents areincreasingly switching their children to private schools,which do charge tuition fees.The reason is private schools offer better quality education.
Other areas.There are plenty of other areas.But,these are the four most important,I feel.Two of them are under the control of CMs.So,they have to be part of the solution.
最后,印度必须对学校进行改革。在大多数政府公立学校里,女孩没有得到与男孩相同的教育机会。许多贫困的父母会牺牲自己的生活质量,把他们的儿子送到私立学校。但是,他们中的一些人可能不为女儿支付私立学校的学费,只让她们在质量较差的公立学校就读。印度男子学校由邦政府管理。这些学校不收学费。但即便是贫穷的父母,也越来越多地把他们的孩子转到私立学校,私立学校是会收取学费的。原因是私立学校提供更好的质量教育。
还有很多其他领域。但是,我觉得这四个是最重要的。

Issac Thambi,works at IBM Indonesia

The growth in GDP has been steady for consecutive years but employment number have not been growing as fast as GDP has been growing The question arises that how come the GDP of India has been steadily growing but real employment has been stagnating since 2013?With a country of population of 1.25 billion that is expected to add above 250 million to its labor force by 2050,this is an unacceptable.A failure to focus on growth of both SUPPLY and DEMAND leads to disastrous economic performance.
国内生产总值连续多年保持稳定增长,但就业增长速度没有国内生产总值增长快。
问题是,为什么印度的GDP一直在稳步增长,而实际就业却自2013年以来一直停滞不前?印度有12.5亿人口,预计到2050年将增加2.5亿以上的劳动力,这是无法消化的。未能同时关注供给和需求的增长,将导致灾难性的经济表现。

1.Failure of Make In India
2.Failure of GOLD bond introduced in 2015 Budget
3.Failure of Demonetization experiment
4.Creation of Real Estate Bubble(due to Repo-Rate Cuts by RBD)leading to real estate crisis
5.Flection of Donald Trump as US President in 2016 and its impacts on India’s prime IT sector
6India headed for US style 2008 crash
7.Rising Inflation in India due to higher denomination currency notes which has gone up further with introduction of Rs 2000 denomination note.
8.Poor contribution of Indian businesses towards India’s macroeconomic growth in terms of job creation.
1.印度制造,失败
2.2015年预算中引入黄金债券,失败
3.废钞令,失败
4.房地产泡沫的产生(由于印度央行降息)导致房地产危机
5.2016年唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统及其对印度主要行业的影响
6·印度正遭遇美国式的2008年危机
7·因为高面值纸币的推出,导致印度通货膨胀加剧,随着2000卢比面值纸币的推出,印度通货膨胀进步加剧。
8·印度企业在创造就业方面对印度宏观经济增长的贡献不足。

The real estate sector of India is now showing the signs of acute crisis.The bubble is about to burst.This bubble has been growing due to supply side economic policies.The crash nowseems inevitable as the huge number of unemployed families would resort to renting over buying and hence lot more homes are expected to remain unsold
In the pre British Era in 1700’s India was enjoying 27%of world GDP and it was primarily due to a self sufficient India with Increased emphasis on human development which fostered inclusive economic growth.
While some of the reports project the country s economic achievements,there are others,which depict that all is not well with India’s growth model.The World Bank’s”The State of the Poor:Where are the Poor and where are they poorest?”the UNDP’s on human development,and the McKinsey s”From poverty to empowerment:India’s imperative for jobs,growth,and effective basic services”highlight that all is not hunky-dory and that thecountry faces daunting challenges.According to the World Banks’report,India accounts for a third of the world’s poor(up from 22 percent in 1981)with China coming next contributing13 percent(down from 43 percent in 1981)
印度房地产行业目前正显示出严重危机的迹象。泡沫即将破裂。由于供应侧的经济政策,这个泡沫一直在增长。现在看来,房价暴跌似乎是不可避免的,因为大量失业家庭将采取租房而非买房的方式,因此预计将有更多的房屋卖不出去。
在17世纪的前英国时代,印度的GDP占世界GDP的27%,这主要是因为自给自足的印度更加重视人的发展,从而促进了包容性的经济增长。
尽管一些报告预测了印度的经济成就,但也有一些报告显示,印度的增长模式并不尽如人意。世界银行的《穷人的状况:穷人在哪里?哪里的穷人最穷?》联合国开发计划署(UNDP)关于人类发展的报告以及麦肯锡的《从贫困到赋权:印度对就业、增长和有效基础服务的迫切需求》都强调,印度面临着严峻的挑战。根据世界银行的报告,印度占世界贫困人口的三分之一(从1981年的22%上升),其次是中国(从1981年的43%下降),占到13%.

Ray Gordon,studied Economics at Michigan State University

I’m not sure really why other than just blind nationalism,but this sort of talk seems frankly unrealistic for the foreseeable future Most people who don’t have much understanding or a very rudimentary understanding of economics will mistakenly assume that if a country has a faster growth rate then it is actually growing faster,this is not the case
1.India growing at 7%with an economy of 2.5 trillion equals around 175 billion dollars
2.China growing at around 6.5%with an economy of 12 trillion equals around 780 Billion dollars.
If China grows at 6.5%today India would have to grow at a whopping 32.5%to even match the growth in actual terms
China today adds about 1 India every 2 years or so in terms of real growth,in order for India to even match China’s arowth it would have to arow at 5 times more than China’s arowth rate.
除了盲目的民族主义,我不知道这个乐观来自于哪里,但在可预见的未来,这种说法显然是不现实的。大多数对经济没有太多了解或基本了解的人会错误地认为,如果一个国家的经济增长速度更快,那么它实际上增长得更快,但事实并非如此:
1·印度经济增长7%,2.5万亿美元,相当于增加了1750亿美元左右
2·中国经济增长6.5%左右,12万亿美元,相当于增加了7800亿美元左右。
如果中国今天的经济增长率达到6.5%,印度将不得不以惊人的32.5%的速度增长,才能与中国的实际增长值持平。
如今,中国的经济体量每两年左右就会新增出一个印度,要想赶上中国的增长速度,印度的经济增长率必须达到中国的5倍以上。

Sunny Mewati,M.S.Economics&Finance,Peking University(2016)
It is not an exaggeration to say that India’s high growth expectations are largely anchored to China’s post reform and opening-up economic growth.However,the belief that its GDP will soon surpass China’s comes from skewed understanding of this figure.
毫不夸张地说,印度的高增长预期很大程度上取决于中国改革开放后的经济增长。然而,认为印度GDP将很快超过中国的想法,源自对这一数字的扭曲理解。
India’s demographic dividend will not be as pronounced as China’s but will last longer.
Iattended China Development Forum as a student delegate in 2015 and 2016.
There were a number of panel discussions with Indian policymakers and technocrats-engineers with a very rudimentary understanding of development economics.Their answer to every question on India’s developmental failings was requrgitated versions of-China had their demographic dividend in the 80s,now it’s our turn and ours will be longer.This line of reasoning ignores the developmental reality that India doesn’t have the requisite human physical,and financial capital or state capability to sustain prolonged high economic growth rates.It’s industrial structure is primitive compared to China and other comparable economiesanta
印度的人口红利不会像中国那样明显,但会持续更长时间。
2015年和2016年,我作为学生代表参加了中国发展高层论坛。
与印度政策制定者和技术官僚(对发展经济学有非常基本理解的工程师)进行了多次小组讨论。他们对印度发展失败的每一个问题的回答都是重复的-中国在上世纪80年代有人口红利,现在轮到我们了,而且我们的红利持续时间还会更长。这种推理忽略了一个发展现实,即印度没有必要的人力、物力、财力或国家能力来维持长期的高经济增长率。与中国和其他可比经济体相比,印度的产业结构较为原始。

Shubham Kamde,Transition Consultant at Neeyamo

First of all the comparison we are doing is something different with respect to the other countries.China and India comes on 1st and 2nd place in population index.So,India as well in China there are abundant manpower.
Now how does GDP works,it works with respect to the total population,total employment,the area and there are also so many things which matters,while India will be coming in the world super power.The world’s largest democracy,India was also home to the world’s fastest.growing major economy for most of 2017.But its recent cash crisis has been a blow to its economy,causing the country to lose 11 billionaires and 86%of its circulated cash
The rise of China is quite remarkable.Home to 1.4 billion people,the country already has the world’s largest military,and experts predict it will be the world’s largest economy by 2050
But when we compare both the country we can’t be biased towards India as there are so many things in which China is superior than India.Indian work in the method in which they can get more profit in low investment.The same model they apply in the Indian economy.To make sure every person is employed in India,they look into the basic thing in the same way to make man power will be used.
aihu So by many of such ways India GDP can get a great increase.

首先,我们所做的比较与其他国家有所不同。中国和印度在人口指数上分列第一和第二。所以,印度和中国都有充足的劳动力。
GDP是如何发挥作用的,它与总人口,总就业,地区有关还有很多重要的事情有关,印度将成为世界超级大国。作为世界上最大的皿煮国家,印度在2017年的大部分时间里也是世界上增长最快的主要经济体。但最近的现金危机对该国经济造成了打击,导致该国损失了11位亿万富翁和86%的流通现金。
中国的崛起是相当引人注目的。这个拥有14亿人口的国家已经拥有世界上最大的军队,专家预测到2050年它将成为世界上最大的经济体
但是当我们比较这两个国家时,我们不能偏向印度,因为中国在很多方面都比印度优越。印度人致力于用低投资获得更多利润的方法。为了确保每个人在印度都有工作,他们以同样的方式研究基本问题,让人力得到利用。
因此,通过许多这样的方式,印度的GDP可以大幅增长。

Sunil Nadakuditi,MBA Finance(2019)

Iam an Indian and I don’t think that India have a potential to surprass China’s GDP at least for a period of 6-8 years.
I have some interesting numbers.
China:
GDP in 2016:11.2 lakh crores USD GDP
growth rate by 2017:6.7%
Current GDP rank:2
India:
GDP in 2016:2.26 lakh crores USD
GDP growth rate by 2017:7.1%
Current GDP rank:5
As GDP itself speaks.
GDP of China is 5 times that of India.Even GDP rates are almost the same.Eventhere is a mighty boom in India and severe recession in China.India’s GDP outnumbering China’s GDP is quite tough.

我是印度人,我认为印度至少在未来6-8年内,无法超过中国的GDP.
我有一些有趣的数字。
中国:
2016年GDP:11.20万亿美元
2017年国内生产总值增长6.7%
目前GDP排名:2
印度
2016年GDP:2.6万亿美元
2017年国内生产总值增长7.1%
目前GDP排名:5
正如GDP本身所言。
中国的GDP是印度的5倍。甚至GDP增长率也几乎相同。即使印度也出现了强劲的繁荣,中国出现了严重的衰退。印度的GDP要超过中国是相当困难的。

The possible reasons why most of Indian people predict India’s GDP will surprass China’s GDP
may be due to:
1.Foreign direct investments(FDI).
2.Youth force.
3.Inclining manufacturing and industrial sectors.
Hope this heps
大多数印度人预测印度GDP将超过中国的原因可能是
1外国直接投资(FDD。
2年轻劳动力.
3大力发展制造业和工业部门。
希望我的回答能有所帮助!

Nur Eshmael,editor,scientist teacher,publication at Web Design
India is behind on world terms and must rely on sympathetic former colonial powers to give them a soul
for every 1.2 million Indian they make about 3 billion dollars similar to Iran with every 830000Iranian they make about 3.5 billion dollars Iraq has recently pushed the gap it self with smal population of 35 million of every 3.5 million Iraqis making 22 billion very high compared to Irar infact double India would not reach 1 million per 22 billion in say 200 years
Bangladesh is similar with 164 million Bangladeshis for every 1.6 million Bangladeshis make 2.5billion dollars so every 1 million India over a 1 million Bangladeshi make about 600 million dollars
印度在世界范围内大幅落后,必须依靠悲悯的前殖民列强给他们一个灵魂
每120万印度人赚30亿美元,相当于伊朗每83万伊朗人赚35亿美元。伊拉克最近扩大了自己的差距,3500万人口中每350万伊拉克人赚220亿美元,比伊朗高出许多,事实上,两个印度也无法在200年内达到每100万人口赚的220亿的水平。
孟加拉国也差不多,人口1.64亿,每160万孟加拉人赚25亿美元,所以每100万印度比100万孟加拉人多赚6亿美元。

Japans population of over 120 million people for every 12 million Japanese they make 500billion dollars.
Israel with 10 million people for every 1 million Israeli they make 40 billion and Uae is very siimalr to that of south Korea but with he quarter of the population with every 12 million Uae citizens they make 400 billion.
AND Kenya 50 million population of 85 billion it means that every 500 000 Kenyans make about 850,000 million Dollars with population increase in Kenya
Nigeria high population of 190 million population and 375 billion economy
for every 1.9 million Nigerians they make 3.7 Billion dollars above the limits and gaps are easierfor country’s with small population failer to invest in small population country’s could only lead to problems in the future
日本人口超过1.2亿,每1200万日本人就有5000亿美元的收入。
以色列人口是1000万,每100万以色列人可以获得400亿收入。
阿联酋与韩国相当,人口仅为韩国的四分之一,但阿联酋每1200万公民能创造4000亿收入。
肯尼亚5000万人口创造850亿,这意味着每50万肯尼亚人就能挣8.5亿美元。
尼日利亚人口1.9亿,经济总量3750亿,意味着每190万尼日利亚人,他们的收入就超过限额37亿美元,对于人口少的国家来说,差距更小,投资人口少的国家只会导致未来的问题。

Ramamurthy Guruvayurappan

Iam not the one in that group.India’s GDP is $2 trillion and China $5 trillion,unadjusted for inflation.So not in the near future.If China grows at the current growth rate of 7 pc,India has to grow at 15 pc minimum for next 15 years to catch them.
我不这么认为。未经通胀调整,印度GDP为2万亿美元,中国为5万亿美元。所以在不久的将来是无法实现的。如果中国以目前7%的速度增长,印度必须在未来15年至少增长15%才能赶上中国。

Thomas Chang,Software Engineer at Morgan Stanley

because this is possible isn’tit.
20 years ago,there are lot of people in China don’t believe Chinese GDP will exceed that of Japan.
again,it’s possible.never underestimate any player on the table.
因为这是有可能的,不是吗?
20年前,中国国内也有很多人不相信中国GDP会超过日本。
所以,这是有可能的。永远不要看轻场上的选手。

Spanish Lullaby

I think because indian people assume that China will stop developing her economy while indian is trying her best to catch up.
我想是因为印度人认为中国的经济发展会停滞不前,而印度人尽其最大努力追赶。

Krish Y

GDP growth calculation is different from one nation to another.There are lot of factors involved to calculate the GDP of a nation.
China’s economic model and political stability has more or less contributed to economio success.Its economy is consumer based that means supply has to meet the demand and demand has to be met with supply.All developing and developed nation’s have relied on the supply of Chinese consumer goods to meet their domestic demand.Chinese economic policy has capacity to take risk and enforce fiscal discipline due to its political set up.
India’s economic reforms started in early 90’s and those reforms were not political policy changes rather they were necessity of the hour,and India embraces democracy.Economic reforms need plan,direction and vision across all spectrum of the political and financial system.India is still learning economics of fiscal discipline.India is self sufficient and more of a savings driven economy.Risks does not suite Indian demography.
We should not compare economies of India and China,their economic models are different.
Both are bound to grow as they both share World”s 2/3rd population.
GDP增长的计算方法因国家而异。计算一个国家的GDP涉及很多因素。
中国的经济模式和政治稳定或多或少地对经济成功做出了贡献。它的经济是以消费者为基础的,这意味着供应必须满足需求,而需求必须与供应相满足。所有发展中国家和发达国家都依靠中国消费品的供应来满足国内需求。
印度的经济改革始于90年代初,这些改革不是政治政策的改变,而是拥抱了皿煮。经济改革需要整个政治和金融体系的计划、方向和愿景。印度仍在学习财政纪律经济学。印度自给自足,更多的是储蓄驱动型经济。这种风险并不适合印度的人口结构。
我们不应该比较印度和中国的经济,他们的经济模式是不同的。由于两国人口占到世界总人口的三分之二,这两个国家的经济必然会增长。

Nishant Sharma,Interested in international relations

Because Indians actually want that to happen.It will eventually happen but unfortunately not in the next 50 vears.It will take really long time.
因为印度人真的希望能实现这样的目标。这种情况最终会发生,但不幸的是,在未来50年内,是不可能发生的。这需要很长时间。

Anonymous

The actual Indian annual GDP growth rate in the US dollar was 1%over the past 4 years
过去4年,印度以美元计算的实际GDP年增长率仅为1%.

Anonymous

Faking the data to make the illiterate happy.
伪造数据,能让文盲们高兴不已。

Quora User,lives in Montréal,QC,Canada

I felt a lot India were very proud and did not have much chance to travel and see the outside world…
我觉得很多印度人都很自豪,但没有太多的机会四处旅行,看看外面的世界…..

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