Quora:中印GDP曾经相当,为何印度GDP缩水了,而中国GDP飙升至“十万亿”级?

2019.7.19 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

Quora:中印GDP曾经相当,为何印度GDP缩水了,而中国GDP飙升至“十万亿”级? 世界看中国-第1张

At one time,China’s GDP and India’s GDP were almost the same.Why did our GDP shrink and remain in billions while China’s GDP soared to trillions?
曾经,中国和印度的GDP不相上下。为什么我们的GDP缩水了,一直在数十亿上下徘徊,而中国的GDP却额升到了数万亿?

以下是Quora读者的评论:
Anish Sharma,Your friendly-neighborhood liberal teenage Indian Quoran.

It has to do with China’s economic policies starting from the late 1970s,post the Mao-era,compared to India’s at the same time.
After Chairman Mao’s death,Deng Xiaoping,an economic reformist,took over as the head of government in China.Since then,China hasn’t looked back,and its GDP has soared.
India,on the other hand,was under the rule of an exceptionally staunch socialist,Indira Gandhi who believed in highly protectionist,heavily bureaucratic policies to govern the economy.Doing business in India was made notoriously difficult,even more so than during the Nehruvian era,or just after that.Business activity is what leads to GDP and GDP growth is the result of increased business activity,and increased productive output by people.This,as a result of the insanely complicated,and often ludicrous regulations imposed on businesses(the infamous Licence Raj)set back Indian GDP growth tremendously,and economic growth was anemic at best.

这与1970年代未中国执行的经济政策有关。
毛去世后,邓进行了经济改革。从那时起,中国就有如脱弓之箭,一往直前不再回头,国内生产总值大幅增长。
印度是在坚定的社会主义者英迪拉·甘地的统治下,信奉高度保护主义和官僚主义政策来管理经济。在印度做生意是出了名的困难,甚至比在尼赫鲁时代更为困难。商业活动是导致GDP增长的原因,而GDP增长是商业活动增加和人们生产产出增加的结果。这是对企业实施的极其复杂、荒唐可笑的监管(臭名昭著的许可证制度)的结果,极大地阻碍了印度GDP的增长,而经济增长充其量也只是乏力。

India learned its lessons the hard way in July of 1991,coinciding with the imminent collapse of its largest trading partner,the Soviet Union.Suffering an excruciating balance-of-payments crisis,which left us with almost zero financial reserves,the Indian government was forced to go to the IMF for a bailout loan package,in exchange for which India had to shift gold out of the country to the IMF,and dismantle its Licence Raj regulations that had hampered its growth greatly,i.e.the economy had to be liberalized to make business activity much easier.Since then,India’s economy has grown leaps and bounds to make it the 3rd largest economy in the world in GDP-PPP terms and one of the top 10 economies in the world in nominal GDP terms
The gap between China and India is no doubt extraordinary.At the same time,however,it is ikely that India will also attain a reasonably fair level of prosperity,with its commitment to reforms to make business easier to do,and a burgeoning middle class that grows ever fasterpropelling the economy further,to new milestones.There’s miles to go before we sleep,but our story is equally enthralling.
1991年7月,印度最大的贸易伙伴苏联,印度艰难地吸取了教训。痛苦折磨人的国际收支平衡危机,让我们的金融储备几乎归零,印度政府被迫向国际货币基金组织申请救助贷款,并废除许可证制度规定,经济必须自由化才能让商业活动变得更简单。从那时起,印度经济实现了跨越式增长,成为按GDP-PPP计算的全球第三大经济体,按名义GDP计算的全球十大经济体之一。
中国和印度之间的差距无疑是巨大的。但印度很可能也能取得与中国相当的繁荣水平,因为印度承诺进行改革,提高商业便利度,新兴中产阶级的增长越来越快,推动经济进一步发展,达到新的里程碑。在我们安心休息前,还有很长的路要走,但我们的发展同样精彩。

Arnab Chatterjee,glad to be born Indian

The answer is simple.it is the”Sickle and Hammer”
Because of the acculturation of the masses done by the leftist-Maoist intellectual class in society that said that if you are a businessman,you must be morally crooked and corrupt!there was glorification of revolution,struggle and deification of the poor and impoverished for political mileage by the naxal sympathizers.they typical socialists ideals incentivised the citizens to stop striving for excellence and look up to the almighty govt for every solution to their problems rather than searching for the tools of empowerment.and in case the govt took some corrective action for employment and industrialization,these leftist cockroaches put hurdles in the way of developmental activities every time by citing tribal rights or farmer rights without putting forth any model for dispute resolution,but eternal struggle with no means to any end.it is the Nehruvian dictatorship in Indian politics and leftist-Maoist hegemony in our educational institutes that made us fail in our endeavors.
答案很简单,那就是”镰刀加锤子
因为社会上左翼毛派知识分子阶层对大众的文化熏染,他们说如果你是商人,那么你在道德上肯定就是道德败坏、腐败堕落的!纳萨尔的同情者们颂扬革命、斗争,并神化穷人和贫困人口,以达到政治目的。他们的社会主义理想鼓励公民停下追求卓越的脚步,而是仰仗全能的政府为他们的问题寻找所有解决方案,而不是寻找赋权的工具。如果政府对就业和T业化采取一些纠正措施,这些左派蟑螂就打着部落权利或农民权利的名义在发展之路上设置障碍,从不提出纠纷的解决模式,只是一味的斗争,没完没了。我们的政治体系中有尼赫鲁的独材专政,教育机构中有独材左翼分子的霸权,使得我们的努力以失败而告终。

Sonu Gandla, CEO and Founder at Niftypriceaction. com (2013-present)

At a high level the basis for China’s growth is actually very well-understood. At the beginning of the reform and opening up period”(c.1978), China was extremely poor -far poorer than sub-Saharan Africa for instance. Since then it has (partially) caught up to the rest of the world, by adopting institutions and technologies from richer places –the process economists call”convergence”
If you think about it, a far more interesting question is why not all poor countries grow rapidly. After all, it’s much easier to learn from someone else (e.g. intensive agricultural methods or high-productivity manufacturing techniques), than to improve upon the state-of-the-art. You’d expect fast growth to be the default condition of poor countries
The reason it isn’t so in the real world seems to be specific to each country, but there are some bvious pitfalls: ntan

Corruption –particularly of the sort that keeps the profit motive from operating
Excessive foreign borrowing leading to currency crisis
Civil war, social unrest, crime
Generally hostile attitudes towards business (reflected in requlations, etc).
Dutch disease”(extraction of natural resources crowds out other type of economic activity)
My view is that, to a first approximation, China’s success is best understood in terms of the specific policies that enabled the country to avoid the above and other potential pitfalls (this is not to in any way to denigrate China’s achievements –the fact that so many countries fall into one of these traps shows that they are indeed very hard to avoid).

人们对中国经济增长的基础其实非常了解。在”改革开放时期”(1978年左右)之初,中国极度贫困—举个例子吧,远比撒哈拉以南非洲贫穷。从那以后,中国(局部地)通过采纳富裕国家的制度和技术,已经赶上了世界其他地区-经济学家们称之为“趋同”的过程。
如果你仔细想想,一个更有趣的问题是,为什么不是所有的穷国都能实现快速增长。毕竟,向别人学习(例如集约农业方法或高生产率的制造技术)要比向最先进的技术学习容易得多。你会认为快速增长是穷国都能实现的。
在现实世界中并非如此的原因似乎因人而异,但也存在一些明显的困难:
腐败-尤其是那种阻碍利润动机运转的腐败
过度的外债导致货币危机
内战,社会动荡,犯罪
对企业的不友好态度(反映在规章制度等方面)
“荷兰病”开采自然资源排挤其他经动
我的观点是,中国的成功是对令这个国家避免上述和其他潜在缺陷的具体政策的充分解读。

The above is not the whole story,but is probably most of the story if we look over the whole period of high growth(1978-present).
In 1978,after years of state control of all productive assets,the government of China embarked on a major program of economic reform.In an effort to awaken a dormant economic giant,it encouraged the formation of rural enterprises and private businesses,liberalized foreign trade and investment,relaxed state control over some prices,and invested in industrial production and the education of its workforce.By nearly all accounts,the strategy has worked spectacularly.
While pre-1978 China had seen annual growth of 6 percent a year(with somel
painful ups and downs along the way),post-1978 China saw average real
growth of more than 9 percent a year with fewer and less painful ups and downs.In several peak years,the economy grew more than 13 percent
以上也许并不全面,但如果我们纵观整个高速增长时期(1978年至今),应该差距不大。
1978年,在国家管控一切生产资产多年后,中国开始实施一项重大的经济改革计划。努力唤醒沉睡的经济巨人,鼓励农村企业和私营企业的建立,对外贸易和投资得到松绑,放松国家对部分商品价格的管控,并投资于工业生产和劳动力教育。几乎所有人都认为,这一策略成效卓然。
1978年以前,中国的年增长率为6%,1978年后的中国平均年增长率超过9%,并趋于稳定。在几次经济高峰时期,经济增长超过13%

Muthu Kumar, I too know how Indian Economy works

Well, there are many factors associated with GDP between India and China. We can’ t compare the GDP of both countries, the path followed by China is different that of India. China followed the he path of Capitalist whereas India moved towards Socio-Economic development path Infact Almost most of the biz in China are state controlled but here in India we took the private sectors along with us. Not just Tata groups but after the LPG reforms we have opened the doors for most of the foreign corporate honchos and now the present govt is keen on implementing that the government has no business in running a businesses and it is slowly restricting it towards just governance or the New Age Governance through ICT. This is not the case with China. Most of the large tech companies like Facebook, Twitter, snapchat and many other social media are under tight grip of Chinese govt and restricted to run their business.
Now the main reason for GDP shrink is India is an import oriented country which means the imports are higher than our exports and hence trade deficit is high but China is an export oriented country and given the above reasons the imports are low but exports are high. In most of the countries Chinese dump their goods and the importing countries has to fight with raising their customs duties, countervailing duty etc but still they are able to dump because of cheap labour available with them.

I think now the shift is towards India because of the one child policy which was followed by China for nearly four decades so the Chinese govt is struggling to replace this aging populatior wheats Indiahas nearly 65%of population who are under 35 yrs age.We can’t take it as granted because we are having tough competition in filling the vacuum created by the Chinese due to cheap labour available with East Asian countries like Bangladesh,Vietnam etc.India willtake time to reach the trillion dollar GDP but it will be able to sustain for a longer time than China
印度和中国的GDP有很多影响因素。我们无法比较两国的GDP,中国所走的道路与印度不同。中国走资本主义道路,印度走社会经济发展道路。事实上,在中国,几乎所有的商业活动都是由国家控制的。不仅是塔塔集团,LPG都经历了改革,我们打开国门,接纳了外国公司,现任政府奉行的是政府不插手企业经营,慢慢地进行限制管理或新时代治理。中国的情况井非如此。大多数大型科技公司,如Facebook.Twitter,snapchat和许多其他社交媒体,都受到中国的严格管控,只允许本国企业经营
现在印度GDP萎缩的主要原因是印度是一个进口导向型国家,这意味着进口高于出口,因此贸易逆差高,而中国是一个出口导向型国家,进口少而出口多。在大多数国家,中国人倾销他们的商品,进口国不得不与提高关税,反补贴税等斗争,但他们仍然能够倾销,因为他们有廉价的劳动力。
我认为现在风水转向印度了,因为中国的独生子女政策实行了近40年,所以中国正在努力更替老龄化人口,印度有近65%的人口年龄在35岁以下。我们不能认为这是理所当然的,因为在填补中国制造的真空方面,我们面临着激烈的竞争,这一真空是由孟加拉国、越南等东亚国家提供的廉价劳动力造成的。印度需要时间来实现万亿美元的GDP,但它能比中国维持更长的时间。

Yogishchandra Kamath,Senior Software Engineer at Microsoft

I don’t know where you are getting your data.India’s GDP is in trillions.
我不知道你从哪里得到的数据。印度的GDP规模已达万亿。

Ramaswamy Subramanian,studied at University of Delhi

Democratic attitude do have different dimensions.Our democracy is freedom based,and many democracies are development based.China is one among them.Work culture,discipline,andgovernance,are are the primary requirement for development.But too much freedom,do not subscribe to faster development.Further,single party system can make better and faster decisions,but our multiparty political system,do have many bottle-necks.People’s basic culture and attitudes too,can be added to this.
皿煮确实有不同的维度。我们的皿煮以自由为基础,许多皿煮以发展为基础。中国就是其中之一。工作文化、规程和治理是发展的主要要求。但是太多的自由,无法带来更快的发展。此外,一党制可以做出更好更快的决策,而我们的多党政治制度确实存在许多瓶颈。人们的基本文化和态度,也有一定关系。

Anurag Vashishtha,Preparing for Civil services

After remaining the world’s fastest-growing region for eight consecutive quarters,India’s economy slowed to its lowest level in 13 quarters.
This is at a time when other South Asian nations like Bangladesh and Nepal have registered strong economic growth.
Although the current GDP downfall is a short term effect due to revolutionary policies like Demonetisation and GST.
The world bank has projected India’s economy to grow sharply with a sharp improvement in investment demand.Though current account deficit is expected to rise,it will be neutralised by the foreign direct investment inflows.
The multi-lateral lending agency said that because the main explanations offered for the slowdown of the last quarter refer to temporary shocks,the growth rate could be expected to bounce back.

在连续8个季度保持世界增长最快地区的地位之后,印度经济增速降至13个季度以来的最低水平。
与此同时,孟加拉国和尼泊尔等其他南亚国家也实现了强劲的经济增长。但当前的GDP下降是由废钞令和消费税等改革政策造成的短期效应。
世界银行预测,随着投资需求的大幅改善,印度经济将大幅增长。尽管经常账户赤字预计将上升,但它将被外国直接投资流入所冲抵。
这家多边贷款机构表示,由于对上季度经济放缓的主要解释是暂时性冲击,预计经济增长率将继续反弹。

Tumpe Lollen

Indeed,the economy of India is one of largest economy of the world.According to the International Monetary Fund data released on 23th April 2017,it is the world’s sixth-largest conomy by nominal GDP and the forth-largest by purchasing power parity(PPP),with hopping 2,454.458 billions US dollar.By another report released by government on 28th February 2018,as per the report,India regained the status of the world’s fastest-growing major economy by beating China in the October-December quarter(2017),which driven by a pick-up in growth in manufacturing and services sectors.GDP grew at 7.2 per cent in the October-December quarter.
But we must not forget that the country ranks 141st in per capita nominal GDP with $1723 and 123rd in per capita PPP with $6,616 as of 2016.It is all because of huge population pressure.
事实上,印度经济是世界上最大的经济体之一。根据国际货币基金组织2017年4月23日发布的数据,印度是全球名义GDP第六大经济体,购买力平价(PPP)第四大经济体,规模跃升24544.58亿美元。2018年2月28日,印度政府发布的另一份报告显示,受制造业和服务业增长加快的推动,印度在2017年第四季度超过中国,重新成为全球增长最快的主要经济体。去年第四季度,印度国内生产总值(GDP)增长7.2%
但我们不能忘记,截至2016年,印度人均名义国内生产总值(GDP)仅为1723美元,排名第141位,人均购买力平价(PPP)排名第123位,为6616美元。这都是庞大的人口带来的压力

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