2019.7.19 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

Quora:中印GDP曾经相当,为何印度GDP缩水了,而中国GDP飙升至“十万亿”级? 世界看中国-第1张

At one time,China’s GDP and India’s GDP were almost the same.Why did our GDP shrink and remain in billions while China’s GDP soared to trillions?

Anish Sharma,Your friendly-neighborhood liberal teenage Indian Quoran.

It has to do with China’s economic policies starting from the late 1970s,post the Mao-era,compared to India’s at the same time.
After Chairman Mao’s death,Deng Xiaoping,an economic reformist,took over as the head of government in China.Since then,China hasn’t looked back,and its GDP has soared.
India,on the other hand,was under the rule of an exceptionally staunch socialist,Indira Gandhi who believed in highly protectionist,heavily bureaucratic policies to govern the economy.Doing business in India was made notoriously difficult,even more so than during the Nehruvian era,or just after that.Business activity is what leads to GDP and GDP growth is the result of increased business activity,and increased productive output by people.This,as a result of the insanely complicated,and often ludicrous regulations imposed on businesses(the infamous Licence Raj)set back Indian GDP growth tremendously,and economic growth was anemic at best.


India learned its lessons the hard way in July of 1991,coinciding with the imminent collapse of its largest trading partner,the Soviet Union.Suffering an excruciating balance-of-payments crisis,which left us with almost zero financial reserves,the Indian government was forced to go to the IMF for a bailout loan package,in exchange for which India had to shift gold out of the country to the IMF,and dismantle its Licence Raj regulations that had hampered its growth greatly,i.e.the economy had to be liberalized to make business activity much easier.Since then,India’s economy has grown leaps and bounds to make it the 3rd largest economy in the world in GDP-PPP terms and one of the top 10 economies in the world in nominal GDP terms
The gap between China and India is no doubt extraordinary.At the same time,however,it is ikely that India will also attain a reasonably fair level of prosperity,with its commitment to reforms to make business easier to do,and a burgeoning middle class that grows ever fasterpropelling the economy further,to new milestones.There’s miles to go before we sleep,but our story is equally enthralling.

Arnab Chatterjee,glad to be born Indian

The answer is simple.it is the”Sickle and Hammer”
Because of the acculturation of the masses done by the leftist-Maoist intellectual class in society that said that if you are a businessman,you must be morally crooked and corrupt!there was glorification of revolution,struggle and deification of the poor and impoverished for political mileage by the naxal sympathizers.they typical socialists ideals incentivised the citizens to stop striving for excellence and look up to the almighty govt for every solution to their problems rather than searching for the tools of empowerment.and in case the govt took some corrective action for employment and industrialization,these leftist cockroaches put hurdles in the way of developmental activities every time by citing tribal rights or farmer rights without putting forth any model for dispute resolution,but eternal struggle with no means to any end.it is the Nehruvian dictatorship in Indian politics and leftist-Maoist hegemony in our educational institutes that made us fail in our endeavors.

Sonu Gandla, CEO and Founder at Niftypriceaction. com (2013-present)

At a high level the basis for China’s growth is actually very well-understood. At the beginning of the reform and opening up period”(c.1978), China was extremely poor -far poorer than sub-Saharan Africa for instance. Since then it has (partially) caught up to the rest of the world, by adopting institutions and technologies from richer places –the process economists call”convergence”
If you think about it, a far more interesting question is why not all poor countries grow rapidly. After all, it’s much easier to learn from someone else (e.g. intensive agricultural methods or high-productivity manufacturing techniques), than to improve upon the state-of-the-art. You’d expect fast growth to be the default condition of poor countries
The reason it isn’t so in the real world seems to be specific to each country, but there are some bvious pitfalls: ntan

Corruption –particularly of the sort that keeps the profit motive from operating
Excessive foreign borrowing leading to currency crisis
Civil war, social unrest, crime
Generally hostile attitudes towards business (reflected in requlations, etc).
Dutch disease”(extraction of natural resources crowds out other type of economic activity)
My view is that, to a first approximation, China’s success is best understood in terms of the specific policies that enabled the country to avoid the above and other potential pitfalls (this is not to in any way to denigrate China’s achievements –the fact that so many countries fall into one of these traps shows that they are indeed very hard to avoid).


The above is not the whole story,but is probably most of the story if we look over the whole period of high growth(1978-present).
In 1978,after years of state control of all productive assets,the government of China embarked on a major program of economic reform.In an effort to awaken a dormant economic giant,it encouraged the formation of rural enterprises and private businesses,liberalized foreign trade and investment,relaxed state control over some prices,and invested in industrial production and the education of its workforce.By nearly all accounts,the strategy has worked spectacularly.
While pre-1978 China had seen annual growth of 6 percent a year(with somel
painful ups and downs along the way),post-1978 China saw average real
growth of more than 9 percent a year with fewer and less painful ups and downs.In several peak years,the economy grew more than 13 percent

Muthu Kumar, I too know how Indian Economy works

Well, there are many factors associated with GDP between India and China. We can’ t compare the GDP of both countries, the path followed by China is different that of India. China followed the he path of Capitalist whereas India moved towards Socio-Economic development path Infact Almost most of the biz in China are state controlled but here in India we took the private sectors along with us. Not just Tata groups but after the LPG reforms we have opened the doors for most of the foreign corporate honchos and now the present govt is keen on implementing that the government has no business in running a businesses and it is slowly restricting it towards just governance or the New Age Governance through ICT. This is not the case with China. Most of the large tech companies like Facebook, Twitter, snapchat and many other social media are under tight grip of Chinese govt and restricted to run their business.
Now the main reason for GDP shrink is India is an import oriented country which means the imports are higher than our exports and hence trade deficit is high but China is an export oriented country and given the above reasons the imports are low but exports are high. In most of the countries Chinese dump their goods and the importing countries has to fight with raising their customs duties, countervailing duty etc but still they are able to dump because of cheap labour available with them.

I think now the shift is towards India because of the one child policy which was followed by China for nearly four decades so the Chinese govt is struggling to replace this aging populatior wheats Indiahas nearly 65%of population who are under 35 yrs age.We can’t take it as granted because we are having tough competition in filling the vacuum created by the Chinese due to cheap labour available with East Asian countries like Bangladesh,Vietnam etc.India willtake time to reach the trillion dollar GDP but it will be able to sustain for a longer time than China

Yogishchandra Kamath,Senior Software Engineer at Microsoft

I don’t know where you are getting your data.India’s GDP is in trillions.

Ramaswamy Subramanian,studied at University of Delhi

Democratic attitude do have different dimensions.Our democracy is freedom based,and many democracies are development based.China is one among them.Work culture,discipline,andgovernance,are are the primary requirement for development.But too much freedom,do not subscribe to faster development.Further,single party system can make better and faster decisions,but our multiparty political system,do have many bottle-necks.People’s basic culture and attitudes too,can be added to this.

Anurag Vashishtha,Preparing for Civil services

After remaining the world’s fastest-growing region for eight consecutive quarters,India’s economy slowed to its lowest level in 13 quarters.
This is at a time when other South Asian nations like Bangladesh and Nepal have registered strong economic growth.
Although the current GDP downfall is a short term effect due to revolutionary policies like Demonetisation and GST.
The world bank has projected India’s economy to grow sharply with a sharp improvement in investment demand.Though current account deficit is expected to rise,it will be neutralised by the foreign direct investment inflows.
The multi-lateral lending agency said that because the main explanations offered for the slowdown of the last quarter refer to temporary shocks,the growth rate could be expected to bounce back.


Tumpe Lollen

Indeed,the economy of India is one of largest economy of the world.According to the International Monetary Fund data released on 23th April 2017,it is the world’s sixth-largest conomy by nominal GDP and the forth-largest by purchasing power parity(PPP),with hopping 2,454.458 billions US dollar.By another report released by government on 28th February 2018,as per the report,India regained the status of the world’s fastest-growing major economy by beating China in the October-December quarter(2017),which driven by a pick-up in growth in manufacturing and services sectors.GDP grew at 7.2 per cent in the October-December quarter.
But we must not forget that the country ranks 141st in per capita nominal GDP with $1723 and 123rd in per capita PPP with $6,616 as of 2016.It is all because of huge population pressure.