View：Why India may not become the next Asian economic miracle
为什么 无法成为亚洲的下一个 奇迹
There was a lot of buzz about how India should follow the East Asian model even before the.Modi government explicitly embraced it in its latest Economic Survey，which argues that the rise of East Asian economies demonstrate that heavy investment and export manufacturing offer the clearest path for India，too，to achieve a long run of 8%growth.
It is true that Japan，South Korea，Taiwan and China invested and exported their way to prosperity.But what admirers of East Asian model miss is how alien many of its central tenets were to India’s deeply socialist and democratic culture.
Early on，when these countries were about at the same per capita income level as India is today-the East Asian economies were run by autocrats who favoured a powerful but small overnment focussed almost exclusively on supporting export manufacturers，which meant investing in roads and factories，not welfare for the poor and weak.
有很多人激烈讨论，认为 应该遵循东亚模式，他们认为，东亚 体的崛起表明大规模的投资和出口制造业能为 提供最清晰的发展路径，也能实现8%的长期增长
Chinese”state capitalism”promoted growth by steadily withdrawing the hand of the state from the economy，not intervening more heavily.Since the early 1980s，private Chinese companies have increased output five times faster than state companies，and have seen their share of GDP grow from 30%to 70%.When state companies stood in the way of growth，Beijing did not hesitate to cut them off at the knees.Between 1993 and 2005，Chinese state enterprises laid off 73 million people.
East Asia pursued state capitalism with a small s，embracing market forces.Asia scholar JoeStudwell has pointed out that leaders in South Korea didn’t pick industrial champions，they encouraged competition and then helped the winners become competitive in global markets.Governments helped build financial，technical and marketing skills，but even as the left-leaning Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz once put it，”in a way that promoted rather than thwarted the development of private entrepreneurship”
Contrast those attitudes to India，where government is suspicious of the private sector，and elections are fought on promises of generous welfare benefits for the poor，the elderly，farmers and many others.In East Asia，welfare was conceived as a support system to keep industrial workers on the job.Helping the young，old and poor was seen as the responsibility of family，not the state.Rural workers got few welfare benefits，because the plan was to push them off the farms and into factories.
It was only after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 that Taiwan and South Korea started to shift ir earnest from a”developmental”to an”inclusive”welfare model.Taiwan rolled out unemployment insurance，and South Korea extended it to rural labourers，after the crisis had passed.By then，these countries already had average incomes approaching $15，000，or nearlyeight times higher than India today.In other words，they began spending on welfare for the poor and jobless only after they could readily afford it.
Today East Asia still has limited welfare systems and small government，with state spending typically around 20%of GDP-a pittance for relatively rich countries.Though India is much poorer，its government spends a similar share of GDP-and spends more heavily on social welfare.India spends around 7.5%of GDP on social assistance，or at least three times more than what South Korea was spending at a similar income level.
Compared to East Asia，particularly in its early years，India’s spendthrift government also has to borrow more，which keeps interest rates relatively high and puts the squeeze on corporate borrowers，adding to the burdens already created by heavy taxes.Taxes for large corporationsare still close to 30%in India，compared to the 20%level that was common in many East Asian economies.
The East Asian model also included labour laws designed to protect corporations more than workers.The aim was not to guarantee safety or limit hours，but to give management control In response to strikes in the 1960s，South Korean dictator Park Chung Hee imposed increasingly strict rules on unions，enforced by the police and soldiers.
In India it is companies who worry about labour law crackdowns.India tried to copy China free trade zones but failed to attract many investors，because its laws favour workers over capital.India has tried to encourage large manufacturers，but most prefer to stay small，because if they get big they face stricter labour rules and higher taxes.
The Modi government speaks of pushing labour and other reforms to attract investment，but it also promotes a full buffet of welfare programmes，and its latest budget reflects a commitment to continued welfarism more than new investment.Any country at India’s low per capita income level can’t afford both expansive social spending and enough investment to achieve East Asia style 8% growth.
For that，it would need more than incremental reform.It would need to roll back government，reduce taxes，cut welfare spending and reallocate funds for new roads，bridges and other infrastructure，which in turn would boost private investment.To say any of this out loud is to recognise that it s not politically possible or even in many ways desirable.As always，India will follow its own model and，most likely，fall short of becoming the next Asian economic miracle
This article is 1000%correct today finance minister，commerce minister，PM does not know that society is not developed and matured enuff to earn its own bread-butter.Goverment wants to promotes entrepreneur ship.
Mega cities have to re-locate excessive population into smaller towns by developing smaller Townships.De-congestion is the need，Connectivity between townships is already being planned.Central Govt Programs and schemes first have to give top most priority to City improvements&reforms.The success of Economic and Industrial growth depends to a large extent-how City public is educated&skilled，how city people are fit and healthy.How easy and convenient is it to travel to reach hospitals，to doctors，to offices and reach destinations？How convenient is water service，transport，telecommunication？how cities become easy convenient Places of tranquillity.Amravati in Andhra and Dholera in Gujarat are set become First such Cities.regions close to Mumabi Delhi should be next
It can not.Start building cities（at least ONE REAL CITY）and make the infra good.Then bring truth into words and actions.Once the behavior and appearance looks like world class，it truly becomes word class.Number discussions can follow after that.
No，India cannot be Asian economic miracle.India got lethargic unsklled Dhokla and Sambaram leadership and corrupt bureaucrats.Don’t except miracles to happen.
agriculture is the most dominant and contributing sector of indias economy with very large participation by its population.merely dolling out cash to farmers is not going to satisfy his realneed to become selfsufficient/independent to become a small entreprenure.all he needs is help/assistance/encouragement in the shape of fertilisers，seeds，water，power，price qurantee to his produce，market，warehousing and infusion of finance at affordable interest.the indian farmel is capable of bringing about a miracle.i am hopeful that indiawill not be far from achieving a south asian miracle-dattatray bhanap
you dont accept there is a crisis or tragedy or problem-there will never be a crisis or tragedy this is the attitude of Modi led BJP-to run away from reality and never accepted the tragedyor crisis of unemployment or agri distress in the elections nor in the budget and so they will never be able to get rid of this crisis of unemployment.
LETS BE OUR OWN TIGERS.FORGET OTHERS NONSENSE.LETS USE OUR OWN BRAINS AND WIN BIG.SELF RELIANCE IS BEST，JAI HIND
It”‘s the people who make the country prosperous.India is destined to remain poor.Sad！
The things may not have optimally been improved in India，but significant improvements in work culture，digitisation，internal&border security，infrastructure，people”s awareness level etc.may be observed.There is heightened aspiration level amongst all sections of people in rural and urban areas.There is continuing need to further tighten the noose against corruption and tax evasion.Agriculture incomes above Rs.5 lakhs must be taxed now to channel resources towards landless and marginal farmers.
Any Govt trying implementing a bit of what has been recommended will be doomed mid way.There are novel and balanced ways to take India to a developed stage.Hopefully，Modiji will tread a middle path.
AN APARTMENT WHICH COSTS $ 200 IN HYDERABAD COSTS $ 2000 IN VEGAS.HILARIOUS NONSENSE.TIME TO CLEAN OUT ALL FLUFF AND BUBBLES AND NAUTANKI，INDIA IS BEST.
MEDICAL COSTS ARE 10 TO 20%IN INDIA VERSUS USA COSTS.NO NEED TO GUESS WHO WILL WIN IN LONG TERM.LETS CONCENTRATE AND IMPROVE ALL OVER INDIA.FORGET OTHERS&JHANJHAT.JAI SRI RAM.
We been hearing this now for decades and goal posts are always pushed back.One has to laugh when some writers blame it on secularism and democracy but we cannot follow road China took.The initial seed was from ex patriots and we shunned NRI.One often wonder if the Cabinet and advisers are even aware of ground realities of India or live in cocoon.To start any new industry，one needs trained and DISCIPLINED labour which we lack badly.Our Labour and union Laws are inadequate to protect even investments and there was nothing in the budget about it.The nation development is on Law and Order and Judiciary，take a good look at the nation.Our education system and lack of any technical schools are not a goof news either.Technological changes are replacing untrained labourer which we have enough.We are unwilling to face the reality and blame everyone but not ourselves.When and if we can think our of box，we may progress and unless Law and Order is achieved，there is no way we car progress and hope any investments.We can write articles and papers but must face the truth.MOBS ruling streets and lynching as well as rapes donot excite an investor
No.With FMs like Nirmala Sitharaman in charge who is more interested in taxing prudent economic growth cycles，this theme can be forgotten as of now.The budget has created negative sentiment all around and the flight of capital from India has already started.My vote to BJP in the last general elections is backfiring.
India needs to invest immensely on education and skill development.East Asian countries”pillar of strength was their recognition that education and skill are the key for economic development.
Never.Population explosion is the cause and reason，Dismal control is the choise made by politicos to appease vote banks and will now bite the future generations hard.
Population is not a curse in itself but illiteracy is definitely a curse.Iliterate population is a problem and road block to progress..One need to see if government is addressing that issueand how successful in execution to remove illiteracy and improve the quality of education.
Population can be a boon or a curse.So far it has been a curse.
All the south Indian states has reached replacement level.Time to stop North Indians procreating like rats and pigs.
No chance.Modi goverment has a bunch of jokers as ministers and terror accused as hiselected party members backed by facist RSS.India was never supposed to be ruled as al religious majority oppressing the minorities.Casteism is still a shameful social practice.Modi came to power showing empty dreams which never materialised.Just as the US never could prove existence of WMD，Modi failed to bring in black money he lied about.One may argue then how come he was voted back to power…simple：could the other national level party put forward a national level leader to take them forward？The majority is not always right！
media and people love to talk but they do not skills enough to grow faster and better to build a super power.Constant improvement in everything including media reporting and governancebut most important is people”s positive mindset.Too many people with negative mindset and not enough learning going on.As a result，outsiders are defining India
IF WE CAN SUSTAIN THE PRESENT SCENARIOS OF THE ECONOMY IS MORE THAN ENOUGH..OURS IS VAST N HIGHLY POPULATED COUNTRY NOT AS EASY AS TO WRITE.
Subhash Chand Aggarwal
100%yes，provided that others”are given opportunity of being heard.How？At least by providing funds for infrastructure projects at 0%interest rate.It is veery easy and doable.
India has every potential to be….but the politics and corruption is so much that it will still stay under the tag of developing nation.
Good no，excellent piece of journalism.Should open the eyes of citizens about the wastages on subsidy.Lifting the economy comes first，others things are secondary.We are making.more people lazy and useless
There are so many reasons for India not to be an Asian miracle.But it is still a wonder it has not become a disaster.There are do many reasons for it，few among them are like lazy people who don”t want to work，low productivity，selfish，corrupt and parasitic trade unions which resisted all technological development，fragmentation of agricultural land in such a way innovations and benefits of economies of scale can not be obtained，bad implementation of intensiveagriculture by which much land has become barren and neglecting of our old agricultural practices.In addition，the main reason is the socialistic economy model that has been followed to make rich people poor by taxing them and keeping poor poorer.
Excellent article for our public to understand..Politicians will only do what public wants in a democracy..politians and beaurocrats already know all these things but still can”t do anything because of public pressure…
Not to forget the secular structure and cast structure of our country.The two things which will never allow us to become a manufacturing powerhouse like china，TAIWAN or Korea.
Some states will do well，and some won”t，creating secessionist tendencies.Some sections of society will do well，some will be left far behind，creating the conditions for one of the most violent societies on earth.
These social and welfare schemes，subsidies were there，when Mr.Nehru was PM.He was not seeing the situation of east Asians then before making India socialist.Had the author written this article if Mr.Rahul Gandhi was PM and had rolled out 72000 rupees to the poor people？
What a rubbish article？INDIA WILL FOLLOW ITS OWN MODEL，God Bless all Indians.
The author is being very polite and politically correct.The situation is far worse.
It”s true，disaster is awaiting to happen.We are far behind Asian economies，due to misadventure with capitalist growth ideas.Our large population and political wills are with downtrodden appeasement which eventually begets wastages.A sound CEO will cut down wastage and focuses on creating value through few factors of wealth creation.Indian socialist model will take us 2 steps ahead and 3 steps behind.The author is right.