印度媒体:印度应该遵循东亚模式?网友热评中

2019.7.23 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

印度媒体:印度应该遵循东亚模式?网友热评中 世界看中国-第1张

View:Why India may not become the next Asian economic miracle
为什么印度无法成为亚洲的下一个经济奇迹
There was a lot of buzz about how India should follow the East Asian model even before the.Modi government explicitly embraced it in its latest Economic Survey,which argues that the rise of East Asian economies demonstrate that heavy investment and export manufacturing offer the clearest path for India,too,to achieve a long run of 8%growth.
It is true that Japan,South Korea,Taiwan and China invested and exported their way to prosperity.But what admirers of East Asian model miss is how alien many of its central tenets were to India’s deeply socialist and democratic culture.
Early on,when these countries were about at the same per capita income level as India is today-the East Asian economies were run by autocrats who favoured a powerful but small overnment focussed almost exclusively on supporting export manufacturers,which meant investing in roads and factories,not welfare for the poor and weak.
有很多人激烈讨论,认为印度应该遵循东亚模式,他们认为,东亚经济体的崛起表明大规模的投资和出口制造业能为印度提供最清晰的发展路径,也能实现8%的长期增长
的确,日本、韩国、台湾和中国大陆通过投资和出口实现了经济发展。但东亚模式的崇拜者们忽略了一点,它的许多核心原则与印度根深蒂固的社会主义和皿煮文化是多么格格不入
这些国家早期的人均收入水平与印度今天的水平相差无异–东亚经济体的政府,几乎全力支持出口制造商,这意味着对道路和工厂的大举投资,而不是为穷人和弱势群体谋福利。

Chinese”state capitalism”promoted growth by steadily withdrawing the hand of the state from the economy,not intervening more heavily.Since the early 1980s,private Chinese companies have increased output five times faster than state companies,and have seen their share of GDP grow from 30%to 70%.When state companies stood in the way of growth,Beijing did not hesitate to cut them off at the knees.Between 1993 and 2005,Chinese state enterprises laid off 73 million people.
East Asia pursued state capitalism with a small s,embracing market forces.Asia scholar JoeStudwell has pointed out that leaders in South Korea didn’t pick industrial champions,they encouraged competition and then helped the winners become competitive in global markets.Governments helped build financial,technical and marketing skills,but even as the left-leaning Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz once put it,”in a way that promoted rather than thwarted the development of private entrepreneurship”
中国的”国有资本主义”通过将国家管理之手稳步从经济中撤出而促进经济增长,而不是加大干预力度。自上世纪80年代初以来,中国民营企业的产出增速是国有企业的5倍,占GDP的比重也从30%升至70%,当国有企业阻碍经济增长时,中国毫不犹豫地将它们剥除.1993年至2005年,中国国有企业裁员7300万人。
东亚奉行的是小国家资本主义,拥抱市场的力量。亚洲学者乔·斯塔威尔指出,韩国领导人并没有精选行业冠军,而是鼓励竞争,然后帮助赢家在全球市场上变得有竞争力。政府协助培养了金融、技术和营销的技能,但就像左倾的诺贝尔奖得主约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨曾经说的那样,”采取了一种促进而非阻碍私营企业发展的方式”。

Contrast those attitudes to India,where government is suspicious of the private sector,and elections are fought on promises of generous welfare benefits for the poor,the elderly,farmers and many others.In East Asia,welfare was conceived as a support system to keep industrial workers on the job.Helping the young,old and poor was seen as the responsibility of family,not the state.Rural workers got few welfare benefits,because the plan was to push them off the farms and into factories.
It was only after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 that Taiwan and South Korea started to shift ir earnest from a”developmental”to an”inclusive”welfare model.Taiwan rolled out unemployment insurance,and South Korea extended it to rural labourers,after the crisis had passed.By then,these countries already had average incomes approaching $15,000,or nearlyeight times higher than India today.In other words,they began spending on welfare for the poor and jobless only after they could readily afford it.
与之形成鲜明对比的是,印度政府对私营部门持怀疑态度,而选举的基础是为穷人、老年人、农民和其他许多人提供慷慨福利的承诺。在东亚,福利被认为是一种让产业工人维持工作的支持系统。帮助年轻人、老年人和穷人被视为家庭的责任,而非国家的责任。农村工人得到的福利很少,因为这个计划是要把他们从农场推向工厂.
直到1997年亚洲金融危机之后,台湾和韩国才真正开始从“发展型”福利模式转向”包容性”福利模式。危机过去后,台湾推出了失业保险,韩国将失业保险覆盖至农村劳动者群体。当时,这些国家的平均收入已经接近1.5万美元,几乎是今天印度的8倍。换句话说,只有当他们有能力负担得起时,他们才开始为穷人和失业者提供福利。

Today East Asia still has limited welfare systems and small government,with state spending typically around 20%of GDP-a pittance for relatively rich countries.Though India is much poorer,its government spends a similar share of GDP-and spends more heavily on social welfare.India spends around 7.5%of GDP on social assistance,or at least three times more than what South Korea was spending at a similar income level.
Compared to East Asia,particularly in its early years,India’s spendthrift government also has to borrow more,which keeps interest rates relatively high and puts the squeeze on corporate borrowers,adding to the burdens already created by heavy taxes.Taxes for large corporationsare still close to 30%in India,compared to the 20%level that was common in many East Asian economies.
今天,东亚的福利制度依然有限,政府也较小,国家支出通常占GDP的20%左右,这对相对富裕的国家来说微不足道。尽管印度要穷得多,但它的政府在GDP中所占的比例与印度相当,而且在社会福利方面的支出也更多。印度在社会救助方面的支出约占GDP的7.5%,至少是韩国同等收入水平支出的三倍。
与东亚相比,特别是在东亚经济发展的初期,挥霍无度的印度政府还必须借更多的钱,这使得利率保持在相对较高的水平,给企业借款人带来了压力,加重了沉重的税收负担。在印度,大公司的税率仍接近30%,而在许多东亚经济体中,这一比例普遍为20%.

The East Asian model also included labour laws designed to protect corporations more than workers.The aim was not to guarantee safety or limit hours,but to give management control In response to strikes in the 1960s,South Korean dictator Park Chung Hee imposed increasingly strict rules on unions,enforced by the police and soldiers.
In India it is companies who worry about labour law crackdowns.India tried to copy China free trade zones but failed to attract many investors,because its laws favour workers over capital.India has tried to encourage large manufacturers,but most prefer to stay small,because if they get big they face stricter labour rules and higher taxes.
东亚模式还包括旨在保护企业而非工人的劳动法。其目的不是保证安全或限制工作时间,而是给予管理控制权。作为对上世纪60年代罢工的回应,韩国独材者朴正熙对工会施加了越来越严格的规定,由警察和士兵执行。
而在印度,企业担心劳动法会遭到打压。印度试图效仿中国的自由贸易区,但未能吸引到许多投资者,因为印度法律偏向工人,而非资本。印度一直试图鼓励大型制造商,但多数制造商更愿意保持小规模因为如果它们发展壮大,就会面临更严格的劳工法规和更高的税收。

The Modi government speaks of pushing labour and other reforms to attract investment,but it also promotes a full buffet of welfare programmes,and its latest budget reflects a commitment to continued welfarism more than new investment.Any country at India’s low per capita income level can’t afford both expansive social spending and enough investment to achieve East Asia style 8% growth.
For that,it would need more than incremental reform.It would need to roll back government,reduce taxes,cut welfare spending and reallocate funds for new roads,bridges and other infrastructure,which in turn would boost private investment.To say any of this out loud is to recognise that it s not politically possible or even in many ways desirable.As always,India will follow its own model and,most likely,fall short of becoming the next Asian economic miracle
莫迪政府谈到要推动劳动力和其他改革以吸引投资,但它也推动了一系列福利项目。跟印度一样,人均收入水平较低的国家都无力同时承担庞大的社会支出和投资,以实现东亚式8%的增长。
为此,印度需要的不仅仅是渐进式改革。它需要缩减政府开支、减税、削减福利支出,并重新分配资金用于修建新公路、桥梁和其他基础设施,这反过来又将促进私人投资。印度将一如既往地遵循自己的模式,很可能无法成为下一个亚洲经济奇迹。

印度时报网站读者评论:
Dipan patel

This article is 1000%correct today finance minister,commerce minister,PM does not know that society is not developed and matured enuff to earn its own bread-butter.Goverment wants to promotes entrepreneur ship.
这篇文章是1000%正确的,财政部长、商务部长和总理不知道社会并不发达,并不成熟,无法自给自足。政府希望大力发扬企业家精神。

Pyush

Mega cities have to re-locate excessive population into smaller towns by developing smaller Townships.De-congestion is the need,Connectivity between townships is already being planned.Central Govt Programs and schemes first have to give top most priority to City improvements&reforms.The success of Economic and Industrial growth depends to a large extent-how City public is educated&skilled,how city people are fit and healthy.How easy and convenient is it to travel to reach hospitals,to doctors,to offices and reach destinations?How convenient is water service,transport,telecommunication?how cities become easy convenient Places of tranquillity.Amravati in Andhra and Dholera in Gujarat are set become First such Cities.regions close to Mumabi Delhi should be next
大城市必须通过发展小城镇,把过剩的人口重新安置到小城镇。消除拥堵是必要的,城镇之间的互联互通已经在计划之中。中央政府的项目和计划首先必须把城市改善和改革放在首位。经济和工业增长的成功在很大程度上取决于城市公众的受教育程度和技能水平,以及城市居民的健康状况。去往医院、医生、办公室和目的地旅行的便利度如何?水运、交通、通讯有多方便?安得拉邦的Amravati和古吉拉特邦的Dholera将成为第一个这样的城市。下一个应该是靠近孟买德里的地区。

Goswami Boy

It can not.Start building cities(at least ONE REAL CITY)and make the infra good.Then bring truth into words and actions.Once the behavior and appearance looks like world class,it truly becomes word class.Number discussions can follow after that.
印度没有这个能力。开始建设城市(至少建造一个真正的城市),让基础设施运行良好。然后将真理变成言语和行动。一旦行为和外观与世界级城市相似,它就真的变成了世界级城市。之后再来进行数据方面的讨论。
Dillip Patnaik
No,India cannot be Asian economic miracle.India got lethargic unsklled Dhokla and Sambaram leadership and corrupt bureaucrats.Don’t except miracles to happen.
不,印度不可能成为亚洲经济奇迹。印度缺乏活力、缺乏技能,有腐败的领导层以及官僚。不要指望发生什么奇迹。

DM Bhanap

agriculture is the most dominant and contributing sector of indias economy with very large participation by its population.merely dolling out cash to farmers is not going to satisfy his realneed to become selfsufficient/independent to become a small entreprenure.all he needs is help/assistance/encouragement in the shape of fertilisers,seeds,water,power,price qurantee to his produce,market,warehousing and infusion of finance at affordable interest.the indian farmel is capable of bringing about a miracle.i am hopeful that indiawill not be far from achieving a south asian miracle-dattatray bhanap
农业是印度经济中占主导地位和贡献最大的部门,其人口参与程度很高。光靠给农民发钱并不能满足他创业的真正需要。他所需要的只是以化肥、种子、水、电力、价格担保等的形式提供帮助/鼓励,保证他的产品、市场、仓储和利息尚可负担的资金。这位印度农民有能力创造奇迹。我希望印度离实现南亚奇迹不远了。

DS

you dont accept there is a crisis or tragedy or problem-there will never be a crisis or tragedy this is the attitude of Modi led BJP-to run away from reality and never accepted the tragedyor crisis of unemployment or agri distress in the elections nor in the budget and so they will never be able to get rid of this crisis of unemployment.
只要你不承认印度有危机或悲剧或问题,那就不会有危机或悲剧-这是莫迪人民党领导的态度-逃避现实,也从不接受失业的悲剧或危机,他们将永远无法摆脱这场危机失业。

Mahesh

LETS BE OUR OWN TIGERS.FORGET OTHERS NONSENSE.LETS USE OUR OWN BRAINS AND WIN BIG.SELF RELIANCE IS BEST,JAI HIND
让我们做强大的自己。不要管别人的胡说八道。让我们用我们自己的大脑去赢得更大的胜利。自力更生是最好的。印度必胜

Shamsher JBS

It”‘s the people who make the country prosperous.India is destined to remain poor.Sad!
是民众百姓让国家繁荣昌盛。印度注定将继续贫穷。难过!

Ashok Agrawal

The things may not have optimally been improved in India,but significant improvements in work culture,digitisation,internal&border security,infrastructure,people”s awareness level etc.may be observed.There is heightened aspiration level amongst all sections of people in rural and urban areas.There is continuing need to further tighten the noose against corruption and tax evasion.Agriculture incomes above Rs.5 lakhs must be taxed now to channel resources towards landless and marginal farmers.
印度的情况可能没有得到最佳的改善,但在工作文化、数字化、国内和边境安全、基础设施、人们的意识水平等方面,都可以看到显著的改善。在农村和城市的所有人群中,都有了更高的抱负。我们需要进一步加强对腐败和逃税的打击。现在必须对超过50万卢比的农业收入征税,把资源引向无地和边缘农民。

AshokAgraval

Any Govt trying implementing a bit of what has been recommended will be doomed mid way.There are novel and balanced ways to take India to a developed stage.Hopefully,Modiji will tread a middle path.
任何政府试图执行广受推崇的措施都注定会半途而废。有一些新颖而平衡的方法可以让印度进入发达阶段。希望莫迪能走中庸之道。

Mahesh

AN APARTMENT WHICH COSTS $ 200 IN HYDERABAD COSTS $ 2000 IN VEGAS.HILARIOUS NONSENSE.TIME TO CLEAN OUT ALL FLUFF AND BUBBLES AND NAUTANKI,INDIA IS BEST.
在海德拉巴-套200美元的公寓在拉斯维加斯要2000美元。真是荒谬。是时候清理掉所有的泡沫了,印度是最好的。

Mahesh

MEDICAL COSTS ARE 10 TO 20%IN INDIA VERSUS USA COSTS.NO NEED TO GUESS WHO WILL WIN IN LONG TERM.LETS CONCENTRATE AND IMPROVE ALL OVER INDIA.FORGET OTHERS&JHANJHAT.JAI SRI RAM.
印度的医疗费用是美国的10%到20%,没必要去猜测长期看,谁会获胜。让我们集中精力改善整个印度。别管别人怎么说。

Shadi Katyal

We been hearing this now for decades and goal posts are always pushed back.One has to laugh when some writers blame it on secularism and democracy but we cannot follow road China took.The initial seed was from ex patriots and we shunned NRI.One often wonder if the Cabinet and advisers are even aware of ground realities of India or live in cocoon.To start any new industry,one needs trained and DISCIPLINED labour which we lack badly.Our Labour and union Laws are inadequate to protect even investments and there was nothing in the budget about it.The nation development is on Law and Order and Judiciary,take a good look at the nation.Our education system and lack of any technical schools are not a goof news either.Technological changes are replacing untrained labourer which we have enough.We are unwilling to face the reality and blame everyone but not ourselves.When and if we can think our of box,we may progress and unless Law and Order is achieved,there is no way we car progress and hope any investments.We can write articles and papers but must face the truth.MOBS ruling streets and lynching as well as rapes donot excite an investor
几十年来我们一直听到这样的说法,目标总是被往后推延。当一些作家将其归咎于世俗主义和皿煮,但我们无法复制中国的成功之路时,人们只能一笑了之。民众想知道,内阁和顾问们到底了不了解印度的基本现实,是不是生活在茧中。要开创任何新行业,都需要训练有素、纪律严明的劳动力,而我们却严重缺乏这些。我们的劳工法和工会法甚至不足以保护投资。国家的发展是关于法治和司法的,好好看看这个国家。我们的教育体系和技术学校的缺乏也不是什么新鲜事了。技术革新正在取代我们现有的未经训练的工人。我们不愿意面对现实,责怪别人而不自省。如果我们能以局外人的角度看问题,我们就能进步,除非实现法律和秩序,否则我们无法取得进步,也不可能指望任何投资。我们可以写文章,写论文,但必须面对事实。暴民泛滥的街道、私刑以及强奸都不会引起投资者的兴趣。

Mridul Sen

No.With FMs like Nirmala Sitharaman in charge who is more interested in taxing prudent economic growth cycles,this theme can be forgotten as of now.The budget has created negative sentiment all around and the flight of capital from India has already started.My vote to BJP in the last general elections is backfiring.
不。有了尼玛拉·西塔拉曼这样对审慎的经济增长周期征税更感兴趣的金融稳定管理局,这一主题目前可以抛之脑后了。预算已经在各地造成了负面情绪,资金已经开始从印度外流。我在上次大选中投给人民党,结果适得其反。

Ramtanu maitra

India needs to invest immensely on education and skill development.East Asian countries”pillar of strength was their recognition that education and skill are the key for economic development.
印度需要在教育和技能发展上投入巨资。东亚国家的优势在于他们早就认识到了教育和技能是经济发展的关键。

Sundara Online

Never.Population explosion is the cause and reason,Dismal control is the choise made by politicos to appease vote banks and will now bite the future generations hard.
永远不可能。人口爆炸是根源和原因。糟糕的控制是政客们为了安抚民众票仓而做出的选择,这将给未来几代人带来沉重的打击。

Adam

Population is not a curse in itself but illiteracy is definitely a curse.Iliterate population is a problem and road block to progress..One need to see if government is addressing that issueand how successful in execution to remove illiteracy and improve the quality of education.
Population can be a boon or a curse.So far it has been a curse.
人口本身不是祸根,但文盲绝对是祸根。文盲人口是个问题,也是进步的绊脚石。我们得看看政府是否正着手解决这个问题,在扫除文盲和提高教育质量方面执行得有多成功。人口可能是好事,也可能是坏事。到目前为止,人口对于印度一直是个诅咒。

Madikeri Abu

All the south Indian states has reached replacement level.Time to stop North Indians procreating like rats and pigs.
印度南部各邦都达到了更替水平。是时候阻止北印度人像老鼠和猪一样恣意繁殖了。

kama raj

No chance.Modi goverment has a bunch of jokers as ministers and terror accused as hiselected party members backed by facist RSS.India was never supposed to be ruled as al religious majority oppressing the minorities.Casteism is still a shameful social practice.Modi came to power showing empty dreams which never materialised.Just as the US never could prove existence of WMD,Modi failed to bring in black money he lied about.One may argue then how come he was voted back to power…simple:could the other national level party put forward a national level leader to take them forward?The majority is not always right!
完全不可能。莫迪政府里充斥着小丑部长和恐怖分子,他们被指控得到了RSS的支持。印度从来不应该由一个压迫的宗教多数派领导。种姓制度仍然是可耻的社会弊端。莫迪上台时展示的是无法实现的梦想。正如美国永远无法证明大规模杀伤性武器的存在一样,莫迪也没能带回他谎称存在过的黑钱。有人可能会说,那么为什么他会被选举重新掌权呢..很简单,其他大党能推选出一个国家级的领导人来带领他们前进吗?人多并不总是对的!

nick

media and people love to talk but they do not skills enough to grow faster and better to build a super power.Constant improvement in everything including media reporting and governancebut most important is people”s positive mindset.Too many people with negative mindset and not enough learning going on.As a result,outsiders are defining India
媒体和人们喜欢谈论,但他们没有足够的技能来更快更好地成长,建立一个超级大国。不断改进,包括媒体报道和管理,但最重要的是人们的积极心态。太多的人带着消极的心态,没有进行足够的学习。因此,人们就会依此对印度评头论足。

amesh Shah

IF WE CAN SUSTAIN THE PRESENT SCENARIOS OF THE ECONOMY IS MORE THAN ENOUGH..OURS IS VAST N HIGHLY POPULATED COUNTRY NOT AS EASY AS TO WRITE.
如果我们能够维持目前的经济形势,那就足够了 我们的国家幅员辽阔,人口众多,不像动动笔头那么容易。

Subhash Chand Aggarwal

100%yes,provided that others”are given opportunity of being heard.How?At least by providing funds for infrastructure projects at 0%interest rate.It is veery easy and doable.
当然,前提是其他人“有被倾听的机会”。如何做到?至少以零利率为基础设施项目提供资金。这是非常容易和可行的。

Gaana User

India has every potential to be….but the politics and corruption is so much that it will still stay under the tag of developing nation.
印度完全有潜力..但政治腐败太过严重,只能继续贴上发展中国家的标签。

somnath ghosh

Good no,excellent piece of journalism.Should open the eyes of citizens about the wastages on subsidy.Lifting the economy comes first,others things are secondary.We are making.more people lazy and useless
很好,不,这是一篇优秀的新闻稿。我们应该对补贴的浪费睁大眼睛。提振经济是第一位的,其他事情是第二位的。我们采取的措施让越来越多的人流于懒惰,一无是处。

PD

There are so many reasons for India not to be an Asian miracle.But it is still a wonder it has not become a disaster.There are do many reasons for it,few among them are like lazy people who don”t want to work,low productivity,selfish,corrupt and parasitic trade unions which resisted all technological development,fragmentation of agricultural land in such a way innovations and benefits of economies of scale can not be obtained,bad implementation of intensiveagriculture by which much land has become barren and neglecting of our old agricultural practices.In addition,the main reason is the socialistic economy model that has been followed to make rich people poor by taxing them and keeping poor poorer.
印度无法成为亚洲奇迹的原因有很多。但没有演变成一场灾难就已足够奇迹了。原因有许多,比如民众太懒惰,不想工作,生产率低,自私,腐败和寄生工会抵制所有技术进步、农业土地过于分散,使得创新和规模经济的好处无法施展,密集农业的落后生产方式使得土地渐渐贫瘠。此外,主要原因是社会主义经济模式,即通过向富人征税,让富人变穷,而穷人也越来越穷。

Ruchir Goya

Excellent article for our public to understand..Politicians will only do what public wants in a democracy..politians and beaurocrats already know all these things but still can”t do anything because of public pressure…
文章写的真好,让我们的公众能够深入了解真相…在民煮国家,政客们只会做公众想做的事。政客和官员知道这些事情,但由于公众压力,他们仍然无法做出任何改变。

Harsh Banthia

Not to forget the secular structure and cast structure of our country.The two things which will never allow us to become a manufacturing powerhouse like china,TAIWAN or Korea.
不要忘记我国的世俗和种姓结构。这两件事使得我们国家永远无法成为像中国、台湾或韩国那样的制造业强国。

Mahila Utthan

Some states will do well,and some won”t,creating secessionist tendencies.Some sections of society will do well,some will be left far behind,creating the conditions for one of the most violent societies on earth.
有些邦做得好,有些邦做得不好,从而产生分裂主义倾向。社会的某些阶层会做得很好,但某些会被远远抛在后面,为世界上最暴力的社会之一创造了条件。

Amit

These social and welfare schemes,subsidies were there,when Mr.Nehru was PM.He was not seeing the situation of east Asians then before making India socialist.Had the author written this article if Mr.Rahul Gandhi was PM and had rolled out 72000 rupees to the poor people?
What a rubbish article?INDIA WILL FOLLOW ITS OWN MODEL,God Bless all Indians.
尼赫鲁担任总理时,这些社会福利计划和补贴就已经存在。在将印度变成社会主义国家之前,他并没有看到东亚的情况。如果拉胡尔·甘地先生成为印度总理,并且向穷人发放72000卢比,作者会不会写出这篇文章呢?这文章简直太垃圾了!印度将遵循自己的模式。神会保佑所有印度人。

Ranjan Sapra

The author is being very polite and politically correct.The situation is far worse.
作者非常有礼貌,而且措辞已经注意了政治正确。实际情况要比这个糟糕得多。

Hemant Pisat

It”s true,disaster is awaiting to happen.We are far behind Asian economies,due to misadventure with capitalist growth ideas.Our large population and political wills are with downtrodden appeasement which eventually begets wastages.A sound CEO will cut down wastage and focuses on creating value through few factors of wealth creation.Indian socialist model will take us 2 steps ahead and 3 steps behind.The author is right.
的确,灾难伺机而发。由于资本主义发展理念的失误,我们远远落后于亚洲各经济体。我们庞大的人口和政治意愿带有受压迫的缓靖主义,最终导致浪费。一个好的CEO会减少浪费,通过将精力集中在少数创造财富的因素上来创造价值。印度的社会主义模式会让我们前进2步,后退3步。作者这么写是正确的。

相关推荐:印度/政治/经济