(VIP)印媒纳闷:中美贸易战,为什么中国的损失不能转为印度的获益

2019.7.28 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

(VIP)印媒纳闷:中美贸易战,为什么中国的损失不能转为印度的获益 世界看中国-第1张

US-China trade war:Why China’s loss hasn’t been India’s gain
中美贸易战:为什么中国的损失不能转为印度的获益
Despite both the Economic Survey 2019,and NDA-I’s first Budget,clearly establishing the importance of India’s exports in propelling India reach its ambitious $5 trillion economy mark by 2022,the latest trade number relating to country s outward shipments show a-not-so-reassuring picture.
尽管2019年的经济调查和印度人民党的第一份预算都清楚地表明了印度出口对推动印度在2022年前实现其雄心勃勃的5万亿美元经济目标的重要性,但该国出口的最新贸易数据显示,情况并不那么令人心安。
For the first time in nine months,India’s exports shrank 9.71%last month to $25.01 billion,while imports declined 9.06%to $40.29 billion.
The latest numbers pertaining to the country s exports in key sectors indicate a sluggish demand for made-in-India items globally.Among the major foreign exchange earners that witnessed one of the steepest fall in export growth,included:Petroleum(-32.85%),Rice(-28.05%),Gems and Jewellery(-10.67%),ready-made garments(-9.18%),engineering goods(-2.65%),revealed the data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry.
Only 9 out of the 30 major product groups were found to be in positive territory,includind some plantation and agri sector,iron ore,ceramic products&glassware,drugs&pharma,electronic goods and jute manufacturing,observed Federation of Indian Export Organisations(FIEO).
The industry body further stated that barring these 9 major product categories,all majon sectors of exports,including almost all labour-intensive sector exports,besides petroleum for the first time in recent times,were in the negative with a decelerating trend.

上个月,印度出口下降9.71%,跌至250.1亿美元,进口下降9.06%,跌至402.9亿美元,这是九个月来首次发生的情况。
与印度关键行业出口相关的最新数据显示,全球对印度制造产品的需求疲软。工商部发布的数据显示在出口增幅下降幅度最大的主要外汇收入来源中,包括:石油(-32.85%),大米(-28.05%),宝石和珠宝(-10.67%)、成衣(-9.18%),工程产品(-2.65%).
印度出口组织联合会(FIEO)观察到,在30个主要产品类别中,只有9个呈现积极态势,包括一些种植园和农业部门、铁矿石、陶瓷产品和玻璃器皿、药品和制药、电子产品和黄麻制造业。
工业机构进一步指出,除这9个主要产品类别外,所有主要出口部门,包括几乎所有劳动密集型部门的出口,除石油外,都出现了负增长,处于减速的颓势。
Commenting on a 41-month low degrowth in exports,FIEO president Sharad Kumar Saraf,said”Sliding merchandise exports growth during June is a reflection of sluggish global demand and rising tariff war.The high exports base of June 2018 contributed in no less measure.The softening of crude and steel prices also pulled down exports”
Further,citing US-China Trade war and developments in lran as one key reason contributing tothe existing woes of a global economy,the FIEO Chief maintains that the uncertainty attached to it[iran-US slugfest]will further affect the flow of investment and add to currency volatility across global markets.
With key exports sectors faring poorly and no immediate respite in sight,the crucial question cropping up here is where is the spillover benefit of the ongoing US-China trade tussle where exporters were hoping for a steep jump in the global demand for their items.Also,worth probing is what might have gone wrong with Indian exporters and are there structural weaknesses that prevent Indian exports from being competitive?

FIEO总裁沙拉德库马尔.萨拉夫在评论41个月来出口的低增长率时说:”6月份商品出口的下滑反映了全球需求疲软和关税战争的加剧。2018年6月的高出口基数也起到了同样的作用。原油和钢材价格走软也拉低了出口。
此外,这位FIEO首席执行官认为,美中贸易战和伊朗局势的发展,是造成当前全球经济限于困境的一个关键原因。他认为,(伊朗和美国之间的)激烈竞争所带来的不确定性,将进一步影响投资流动,加剧全球市场的汇率波动
由于关键出口行业表现不佳,短期内也看不到任何缓解迹象,这里出现了一个关键问题,就是正在进行的美中贸易争端的溢出效应将流向哪里?此外,值得探究的是,印度出口商可能出了什么问题,是否存在结构性弱点,阻碍了印度出口的竞争力?
Global trade wars aftershocks
Satish Wagh,Chairman,Chemexcil,whose segment saw a dip of 8.17%,maintains that the USA’s withdrawal of GSP benefits on exports from India,does reduce the competitiveness of Indian exporters.He,however,adds that apart from duties,there are factors such as quality delivery time,etc.,which impact trade order flow.”In the coming times,it will have to be seen how this trade war shapes up”,says Wagh.He adds that there certainly exists a general perception that due to the ongoing US-China trade war,Indian suppliers will benefit and the government is also actively engaging with Indian exporters to take advantage of the situation.and soon positive results will start showing up
According to HKL Magu,Chairman of the Apparel Export Promotion Council(AEPC),the apparel sector did not see any significant dip this time.However,any decline in allied sectors such as cotton yarn etc,is not due to recent India-US trade skirmishes,but mainly due to non-
compettiveness of indian players.
The main reason for the decline in the latest export numbers is the fact that Indian exporters are not cost-competitive enough to encash on the opportunity arising out of the US-China trade war,feels Magu.

全球贸易战余波
Chemexcil主席萨迪什瓦赫认为,美国取消对印度出口的普惠制,确实降低了印度出口商的竞争力。然而,他补充说,除了关税,还有一些因素,如质量、交货时间等,会对贸易订单流产生影响。”接下来我们会看到这场贸易战将如何发展,”瓦赫表示。他补充称,人们普遍认为,由于目前的美中贸易战,印度供应商将从中受益,政府也在积极与印度出口商合作,利用这一形势,很快就会开始出现积极的结果。
据服装出口促进委员会(AEPC)主席HKL马库表示,这一次服装行业没有出现任何明显下滑。然而,棉纱等相关行业的下滑,都不是最近印美贸易摩擦的结果,而是印度企业缺乏竞争力的结果。
马库认为,最新出口数据下降的主要原因是,印度出口商的成本竞争力不足以抓住美中贸易战带来的机遇。
“Although China,hit hard by the trade war,has so far vacated a significant space in thel apparel domain,we are not able to capitalise on the opportunity and competitors such as Bangladesh,Cambodia and Vietnam are able to better capitalise on the new opportunities created,both due to preferred trade agreements they have,and conducive policy frameworks in place,”he reasons.
To address the decline in trade,the AEPC Chief opines that India must have more Free Trade Agreements(FTA),not just with the US,but also with the EU-just as Vietnam and Bangladesh have.
“虽然中国遭受了贸易战的重创,迄今为止其服装出口行业已出现明显下滑,我们不能利用机会和竞争对手,而孟加拉国、柬埔寨和越南等国因为最惠贸易协定和有利的政策框架更好的抓住了新的机会。”他分析道。
为了解决贸易下降的问题,AEPC主席认为印度必须不仅与美国,而且还要与欧盟签订更多的自由贸易协定(FTA)–就像越南和孟加拉国所做的那样。

Competition outsmarting Indian players
Among the worst-hit segments that registered a decline in export numbers is the country’scotton yarn/fabrics/made-up segment.The sector,covering items such as bed linen sheets,etc.,witnessed a dip of 19.73%.KK Lalpuria,executive director and CEO,Indocount industries blames the high input raw material cost for this dip.”As a raw material,the cotton turned expensive in recent times,and manufacturers eventually bought it a high price,but then the yarn prices nosedived,so there arose a disparity that negatively affected the exports of Indian items in this segment,”asserts Lalpuria,mentioning that a better trade framework employed by competing countries such as Vietnam,Bangladesh and Cambodia have also led to a fall in Indian shipments this time.
“Recently,inputs cost in raw material across segments have increased.Further,be it the powerl or labour costs,everything seems to have gone up.As a remedy,many of the sector-specificfinancial incentives schemes,thus,need to be executed and streamlined on an urgent basis,says the representative of the textile brand,ranked among the top three exporters of bed sheets/made-ups from India
受打击最严重的行业之一是中国的棉纱/面料/化妆品行业,出口数量出现下降。该行业,包括床单等项目,下降了19.73%,Indocount industries执行董事兼首席执行官KK Lalpuria将这种下降归咎于原材料成本上升。”作为原料,棉花近期价格高涨,制造商高价采购,但随后纱价格暴跌,影响了印度棉纺制品的出口。”Lalpuria称,并提到采取了更优贸易结构的竞争国家如越南、孟加拉国和柬埔寨也导致了印度出口的下降。
“最近,各个部门的原材料投入成本都有所上升。此外,无论是电力还是劳动力成本,一切似乎都在上涨。因此,各行业需要紧急执行财政刺激计划。

WTO norms-a double whammy
To meet WTO norms,the PM-Modi led NDA-II,right from its first term days,has been contemplating phasing out many of its export subsidy programmes.
Many such schemes have so far provided the much useful cushion to a large section of Indian exporters that looked at the government for any kind of financial support to enhance thei market competitiveness globally.However,in recent times,the US government has challengedIndia’s export subsidy programmes at the World Trade Organization(WTO).Keeping this into account,the Indian government plans to phase out its flagship Merchandise Exports from India Scheme(MEIS)over the next 2-3 years.Working in this direction,a scheme for the remission of state and central levies has already been implemented in garments and made-up exports
While the government says that currently,its potential revenue foregone on account of MEIS is projected to be at Rs 30,810 crore a year,has the government’s move led to the intended results on the ground,Indocount’s Lalpuria seems to differ.
On the deployment of funds in Amended Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme(ATUFFs)-a scheme,specially designed for the sector,he says,”Out of more than 9000 cases,the financial support for only 150 cases have so far been considered in the last 3.5 years.”
世贸组织准则–双重打击
为了符合世贸组织的规范,莫迪总理从人民党续任的第一天开始就一直在考虑逐步取消许多出口补贴计划。
迄今为止,许多此类计划为印度出口商提供了非常有用的缓冲,这些出口商指望政府提供各种形式的金融支持,以增强其全球市场竞争力。然而,近年来,美国政府在世界贸易组织对印度的出口补贴计划提出了质疑。考虑到这一点,印度政府计划在未来2-3年内逐步取消其“印度出口计划”。印度已在服装和成衣出口方面实施了一项国家和中央税收的减免计划
政府称目前“印度出口计划”的潜在收入损失预计为每年30810亿卢比。
他说:”过去三年半,在超过9000宗个案中,只有150宗个案获考虑给予财政支援。”

It’s noteworthy that the government launched a Special Package of Rs 6,000 crore in 2016 for garments and made-ups sectors.The package extends Rebate of State Levies(RoSL),additional incentives under ATUFS and a relaxation of Section 80JJAA of Income Tax Act.
“RoSL refund of state levies and refunds of State and Central Levies is still pending since last November,”Lalpuria rues,underlining that global trade is a game of quick decision making that calls for being ahead of the competition in terms of financial planning.However,with such policy glitches affecting cash flow cycle,many exporters in textile segment,being merchant exporters find it acutely hard to sustain the global competition.
“Government needs to reward honest exporters with enhanced ease of business encompassing every trading process,right from simplifying bureaucratic norms to easing inspection procedures,and from taxation glitches to the hassle-free customs,”sums up Lalpuria.
值得注意的是,政府在2016年针对服装和化妆行业推出了一个60亿卢比的特别方案。该方案延长了国家税收退税(RoSL),ATUFS下的额外激励措施以及《所得税法案》(Income Tax Act)第80条JJAA的宽松条款。
拉尔普里亚·鲁伊斯强调,全球贸易是一场快速决策的游戏,需要在财务规划方面领先于竞争对手。然而,许多纺织行业的出口商发现,由于此类政策失误影响了现金流周期,要维持全球竞争力极其困难。拉尔普里亚总结道:”政府需要给诚信的出口商更多的便利,包括从简化官僚规范到简化检查程序,从税务漏洞到零阻力的海关手续的每一个贸易流程。”

印度网友的评论:
Bharat Jago

Because Chinese tech is unbeatable and India will take 50-70 yrs to reach there
因为中国的科技无人能敌,印度得过个50-70年才能实现。

Aroon Nick

Like all government BJP 2.0 IS ONLY TALKING BIG AND DOING NOTHING..people mostly creating jobs in China Hong Kong and China near country except India…All things are coming from China owned or based companies..Make in India is totally failed..All telecom boomthanks to JIO only benefitting the Chinese based industry..ALL HARDWARE FOR JIO,AIRTEL VODAFONE ETC IS COMING FROM CHINA.All telecom and solar panels are coming from the Chinese company….
就像所有的政府一样,人民党2.0只是夸夸其谈,什么都不做…除了印度之外,中国香港和中国附近的国家的大多数人创造了就业机会.所有的东西都来自中国拥有的或位于中国的公司。印度制造完全失败了…..的电信繁荣得益于JIO,只受益于中国的产业…JIO.AIRTEL.沃达丰等公司的所有硬件都来自中国…有的电信和太阳能电池板都来自中国公司…

Srinivasan G Kailasam

Most manufacturers are tuned to supply the local market.It will take time to ramp up capacity to take over the slack created by higher duties on China made goods by the US.Also note that China has started to supply through Hong Kong.
大多数制造商都在为当地市场供货。提高产能以填补美国对中国制造商品加征关税所造成的缺口,尚需时日。还要注意的是,中国已开始通过香港供应稀土。

Bhandupkan

Made in India product quality is worse than made in China.
印度制造的产品质量比中国制造的差。

Dr Mahesh

LISTEN TO ME.CLASSICAL ECONOMICS IS WRONG,LETS STOP EXPORTING,LETS REPLACE ALL IMPORTS AND GET TO NEAR ZERO.LETS PRINT TRILLIONS OF RUPEES IN MONETARY EASINGLIKE ALL OTHERS AND GET INTEREST RATES TO NEAR ZERO,LETS FOCUS ON 100 POOR AND EMERGING MARKETS.JAI HIND
听我说。古典经济学是错误的。我们要停止出口。把所有的进口商品取代掉,降到零为止。让我们像其他国家一样印上万亿卢比来放松货币政策,让利率接近于零。让我们关注100个贫穷和新兴市场。印度必胜。

Dr Mahesh

Forget both these bhikaris.Lets focus on 100 plus developing countries.
忘了这两人吧。我们要关注一下100多个发展中国家。

Ram Nath

We are good in exporting raw materials..For finished Good”s the government need”s to hand hold…Why Vietnam Cambodia are beating us hollow..Why Thailand licks us…Due to cost and quality…Simple..Bangladesh has made a name in garments..Why
我们擅长出口原材料 为什么越南柬埔寨轻而易举地打败我们因为成本和质量…就这么简单。孟加拉国的服装产业已打出名气。为什么

Ks Leow

Made in India?Synonymous to inferior quality and unreliable delivery schedule?India only export 23 billion worth of goods,chicken feed compare with China.How to fill the gap vacatec by Chinese exporters?
印度制造?劣质和不可靠的交货计划的同义词?印度只出口价值230亿美元的商品,与中国相比,简直微不足道。如何才能填补中国出口商的空缺?

Shanky Parkar

everthing cannt happen overnight
所有的事情都不可能一蹴而就。

Nir

Companies are still not,mentally and physically,fit to win in highly competitive world to jump at every opportunities that arise.Looking at the comments also shows that manpower needs surgical improvements to achieve lean and fit motivated production force,white or blue collars Then they collectively blame government and all that is around them.Very tough management job ahead,it seems to me.
在这个竞争激烈的世界上,公司无论在精神上还是身体上,都无法在竞争中取胜,也抓不住每一个出现的机会。从评论中还可以看出,劳动力素质需要提高,才能实现精干和合适的生产动力,无论是白领还是蓝领。在我看来,未来的管理工作非常艰巨。

deshbhaktcommunist

comrade modi and comrade shah are working very hard to shut down evil capitalist businesses and industries.WHy worry about exports when you can just chant namo namo and survive on free rations?
莫迪同志和沙阿同志正在努力关闭邪恶的资本主义企业和工业,既然你靠免费配给过活,为什么还要担心出口呢?

Vasudeva Ungati

China leaves lot of opportunities in metal and consumer goods.Any country can fill the gap.India is suffering with bureaucracy,favouritism,inefficient middle management and fraudsters.these need to be fixed before we think of something big.
中国在金属和消费品领域留下了很多机会。任何国家都可以填补这一空白。印度正遭受官僚主义、偏袒、低效领导和骗子的困扰。在我们大展拳脚之前,这些问题需要解决。

Sheelukkk Kumar

Petroleum products and Gold imports is killing Indian Economy,Each and every Individual should check at their end other than complaining.
石油产品和黄金进口正在扼杀印度经济,每个人都应该检讨自己,而不是抱怨。

Padamnoor Pradeep

With the strengthening of INR to euro and GBP exporters earn less per forex earned.The subsidy to specific industry for export can be easily identified and challenged in WTO.So,government should not have raised taxes on fuel,electricity,GST resulting in a low cost environment,conducive for export and even resulting in cheaper hotels for foreign tourists making India a favourite low cost destination.Low gst should have been applied across all industries including agriculture.This keeps all sections low cost and competitive besides all tax paying industries can be identified for tax avoidance.Surely it is a mammoth task resulting in more jobs in government especially in GST department.Low GST rates but on all commodities.
随着卢比党欧元和英镑汇率的走强,出口商赚取的外汇收入有所下降。对特定行业的出口补贴在WTO中是很容易确定和质疑的。因此,印度政府不应该提高燃料、电力和消费税的税率,打造一个低成本环境、有利于出口,让外国游客入住更便宜的酒店,使印度成为最受欢迎的低成本旅游目的地。低消费税应该适用于包括农业在内的所有行业。这使得所有部门的成本更低,更具有竞争力。毫无疑问,这是一项艰巨的任务,会给政府带来更多的工作岗位,尤其是消费税部门。低消费税适用于所有商品。

Prabhat Patnaik

What are the opportunities for India to export at present time in context of Sino-US trade war?Except some traditional raw material and jewelry,other items cannot compete.The attitude of our manufacturing houses are to be changed in this environment.
在当前中美贸易战的背景下,印度有哪些出口机会?除了一些传统的原材料和珠宝,其他的商品是无法与中国争的。在这种环境下,我们制造企业的态度将会改变。

Nagaraj Subramanian

India is corrupt filth.Indians.are filthy gutter class qouta scum gujrati scum will not.help India.southern India should declare freedom from filthy bharat
印度腐败肮脏。古吉拉特邦人帮不了印度。印度南部应该宣布从肮脏的印度独立出来。

Ramesh Shah

WISHFUL THINKING IS A DREAM BUT FACTUALLY DIFFERS!?OUR PANDITS OF ECONOMY ARE HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC N FAR FROM REALITIES.THE GIGANTIC DEMANDS OF USA N A CUTABOVE IS NOT POSSIBLE WITH OUR MESES.BETTER WE DON”T PUSH OURSELVES RATHER STRETCHED!!?
我们的经济形势总体上是非常乐观的,与现实相去甚远。美国的巨大需求是不可能的…我们最好不要把自己逼得太紧了!!?

Ram Nath

China has made an enabling environment…Support industries…Our embassy is well staffed with well fed well dined well wined diplomats who hardly understand business.
中国创造了有利的环境 支持工业发展.我们大使馆的工作人员都吃得好,吃得好,喝得好,但对于商业完全不懂。

Shanky Parkar

good for India..plug the gap so chinese cannot re enter
对印度是好事…填补空白,让中国人无法重新进入。

Rara R

Indian business quys will want to make all the money they can in a few months by either overcharging or by providing poor quality stuff.And as usual in the long term they will be considered untrustworthy and lose business and the US will move on to Cambodia or Vietnam.Look at the cheap and poor quality stuff Indian businesses make in India.Even the simple umbrella or the cycle pump are such poor quality that we have to use imported ones.
印度商人想要在几个月内赚到他们能赚到的所有钱,要么多收钱,要么提供劣质产品。长期来看,他们会被认为不值得信任,失去生意,美国将转向柬埔寨或越南。看看印度企业在印度生产的廉价劣质产品吧。连简单的雨伞或循环泵的质量都差到不行,我们不得不使用进口商品。

Deepak H

US finds out that India doesnt even have proper roads.So they decide to remain with china
美国发现印度甚至连条像样的公路都没有。所以他们决定留在中国。

Savitha K

Why US not banning exports from hongkong to us?
为什么美国不禁止从香港出口到美国?

Rajiv Nagpal

It would be interesting to watch if the government and the private sector take up the challenge.
如果政府和私营企业接受这一挑战,我们将拭目以待。

Bharat Suraiya

In my opinion,the Private Sector has the onus of stepping up here.Don”t expect the Government to step in and do the job.Let them govern,and let the private sector capitalize on the opportunity.India has enough enterprising business persons to take this on.Jai Hind.
在我看来,私营企业有责任在这方面做出努力。别指望政府会介入并完成这项工作。让他们总领治理。让私营企业抓住这个机会。印度有足够的有进取心的商人来承担这一重任。印度必胜。

Aastha Tayal

India should take the opportunity.Indians should act fast and accepts the order and start manufacturing the product.Good chances for India.
印度应该抓住这个机会。印度人应该迅速行动,接受订单,开始生产。这对印度来说是个好机会。

H K Doshi Doshi

Then Chinese products will be exported through India and later on India will also face tariffs heat from US.
然后中国产品将通过印度出口,之后印度也将面临来自美国的关税压力。

Ajt crewal

India has a trade gap with the US too.June numbers are encouraging-both exports and imports are down.
印度与美国也存在贸易逆差。6月份的数据令人鼓舞–进出口双双下降。

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