印度第一季度GDP增长超中国?真相是印度在负基础上增长,中国是在正基础上增长的

2021.9.3 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

印度第一季度GDP增长超中国?真相是印度在负基础上增长,中国是在正基础上增长的 世界看中国-第1张

Cut The Clutter:India’s Q1 GDP grows by a phenomenal 20.1%&here’s reality under that headline
印度第一季度GDP增长惊人的20.1%?这才是真相!
India’s economy grows at a phenomenal pace of 20.1%as the Modi go nment releases the data fir the first quarter of 2021-22..Shekhar Gupta lifts the data layers to expn the reality that lies behind the cluttered numbers.
莫迪政府发布2021-22年第一季度的数据,印度经济增长取得惊人的20.1%,经济分析师谢卡尔古普塔(Shekhar Gupta)拨开数据表面的假象,别被数字迷惑了,他解释了这些杂乱数字背后的现实。
印度经济分析师谢卡尔·古普塔泼了盆冷水:别被数字迷惑了!印度是在负基础上增长,中国的经济可是在正基础上增长的。

以下是youtube网友的评论:

sanch Sanchayan

If India gets a 8-9%growth next year Q1,then it would be awesome.
如果印度经济明年第一季度同比增长8-9%,那就太棒了

Hema Singh

India should atleast grow 15%in Q1 next year cause base is still not very high,It’s achievable only if 3rd wave impact isn’t alot
印度明年第一季度至少应该增长15%,毕竟基础仍然不是很高,只有在第三波疫情冲击不太大的情况下才能实现

Alok Basu

It’s good that the economy is on the ascent,but to go back to the pre-covid state will take at least year.We are still much away from the satisfactory vaccination status and opening up of the economy is also uncertain,given the possibility of third wave
经济正在上升是件好事,但要回到疫情前的状态至少需要一年时间。防疫工作还远未达到令人满意的水平,经济开放也不确定,有可能出现第三波疫情

Dinesh Bhat

In simple terms,covid put us behind by about 3 years.
简单地说,新冠疫情造成我们倒退了大约3年。

Tj

For someone having trouble visualizing,just think if a stock falls 50%from 100 to 50,then it has to grow 100%to get back to it’s original value of 100.similarly if it falls 25%from 100 to 75
then it has to grow 33%to go back to original value of 100.
有些人还是理解不来。这么说吧,如果股票下跌50%,从100降到50,然后它要张回去,就得增长100%啊。同样的如果之前下降25%从100年降到75,那张回去就要增长33%

avadhut pati

This year Q1 we had partial lockdown so it is quite OK,that we have 20%.It’s such a important point that you have missed to mention.
今年第一季度我们进行了部分封锁,经济增长了20%,能取得这样的成绩已经很不错了。这是很重要的一点,你没有提到。

Rohit Singh

I think it would be great to compare how other biq economies are managing thier recovery how much gdp have they lost etc
我认为比较一下其他大型经济体是如何做到复苏的,他们gdp下降了多少等等

Rajat Agarwal

In short when vou go down 24%from 100 vou are at 76 and when vou move up 20% from 76 you are at 91.2,that is 8.8 deficit forget about growth
简而言之,本来是100的,下降24%,就只有76了,然后增长20%,就是91.2,这其实是负增长8.8%啊

kunal gupta

You cannot discount devastating second wave in first quarter.
你不能忽视第一季度爆发的灾难性疫情造成的影响啊

Arnab Banerjee

By the end of 2021 we will already be in a increase position
2021年底,我们经济就会真正的开始正增长

Rimuru Tempest

Only country to have GDP positive is China
其实唯一GDP增长的只有中国!

PARTHA

@Rimuru Tempest Chinese growth story is manipulated and unreliable
中国所谓的增长,是被操纵的,是不可靠的

Nabeel Hasan

@PARTHA Yes 16 trillion dollar economy is a fraud:D
是啊,他们的16万亿美元经济体是假的

PARTHA

@Nabeel Hasan India’s objective of reaching five trillion dollars economy by 2025 and presently around three trillion economy which is third largest economy in terms of PPP
印度的目标是到2025年经济规模达到5万亿美元,目前是3万亿美元左右,按购买力平价计算,印度是第三大经济体

Rimuru Tempest

@PARTHA what is there to update information.I made a point on China not USA and you talk about USA,west.Get to the point.China is been doing well.
我说的是中国而不是美国,你说的是美国,西方。言归正传。其实中国一直做得很好。

PARTHA

@Rimuru Tempest China,all of their data is manipulated.They even showed copper bar as gold reserve later caught red handed.This nation is unreliable and their show business,none believes.Offcourse,they have done well in economy but they never reveal their actual det
中国的数据都是操纵的,他们甚至把铜条作为黄金储备
这个国家不可靠,他们的演艺圈,没人相信。当然,他们经济表现不错,但从不透露自己的实际债务

Jo Marko

There are over 100 countries who had their GDPs shrink due to the Covid pandemic.But none of them rebounded by 20%as India has done.
This is truly remarkable.
有100多个国家的GDP因新冠疫情而萎缩。但没有一个国家能像印度经济那样反弹20%。这真的很了不起。

Krishna Sharma

Calculation simplified Fell 24%in 2020-21,ie taking base as 100 it became 76,now increase of 20%went up to,92 that means we r still 8%below,from when it started to falll
2020-21年,印度GDP下降24%,即100的基数降至76,现在增加20%上升到92,这意味着我们仍然比开始时低8%啊

vw

But the whole world had COVID,so all nations had a bad quarter.Our 20.1%is to be appreciated by at least us as Indians.If we don’t blow our trumpet no one else will do it for us.
全世界都受疫情影响,所有国家这个季度的经济都很糟糕。我们增长了20.1%,至少值得我们印度人欣赏。如果我们不自吹自擂,没有人会为我们鼓掌的

Navneet Bugalia

Govment need to spend more in infra and healthcare.Use Forex reserves to build infra
政府应当在基础设施和医疗保健方面加大投入。把外汇储备利用起来,修建基础设施

multhiran

let us be happy that we have started to grow after the pandemic..according to me,all the Govt economic policies so far are good but the slow and lethargic implementation is the problem which needs to be set immediately..
令我们高兴的是,我们在疫情之后终于开始增长了。在我看来,迄今为止,政府的所有经济政策都很好,但执行缓慢和乏力是需要纠正的问题。

Madhavan Menor

A well articulated explanation.However you made no mention of the impact of the second wave on the GDP,which fell into this quarter.
说得很好。不过没有提到第二波疫情对印度GDp造成的影响

Manoj Dharap

one aspect i see missing is how our competitors like china,us,japan,germany are doing during this period,which will qive us an holistic view..
我认为有一个方面遗漏了,我们的竞争对手,如中国、美国、日本、德国在这段时间里表现如何,搞清楚这些能给我们一个整体的视角

teamntutuns

I just can’t believe how poor we are it’s just a shame
我简直不敢相信我们会这么穷,真是太丢脸了

Debabrata Acharya

If India’s growth is low-It’s Modi go nments failure If India’s arowth is OUTSTANDING,We need to cut the clutter to see hidden factors
如果印度的增长乏力,那就是莫迪政府的错,如果印度的增长极为亮眼,我们就不能被数据假象迷惑了,应该看清数据背后的真相

AB

Hi SG!Do you see any chance of India running into a”Middle income trap”like that of Meco or south Africaw
大家认为印度有可能陷入墨西哥或南非那样的“中等收入陷阱”吗

Shikhar Amar

You talked about demonetisation,but didn’t talk about world economic slowdown and trade war with China which also affected the economy.
你谈到了废钞,但没有谈到世界经济放缓和与中国的贸易战,这也影响了印度经济。

Rao saheb

would had loved to see comparison with which economies did better during pandemic except china,i dont trust any data that gives.2022 will be better i think with more vaccines out already
我希望看到与其他大型经济体的对比,除了中国,还有哪个经济体在疫情期间表现比印度更好的?我不相信中国发布的数据。
越来越多疫苗问世了,我觉得2022年,印度经济表现会更好

Nalin Saxena

Thanks for a very good and clear analysis.There is one more area I felt should have been covered i.e.a comparison with top 2 or 3 fast growing Large economies(could be China and US or some other)and see how Indian economy has fared as compared to them for the period
2019-20 and 2020-21谢谢你的分析。我觉得还有一个领域应该被提及,即与前2或3个快速增长的大型经济体(可能是中国和美国或其他国家)进行比较,看看印度经济在2019-2020年和2020-21年的表现如何

Bhaskarsingh Chauhan

Modi is a great leader..we all just need to stand behind him.
莫迪是一位伟大的领导人,我们都应该支持他。

Asim Kumar

20.1percent growth of GDP in this quarter is only statistical growth..because we are still far of rom the GDP of 2019-20,which aqain was low compared to previous years.
本季度GDP增长20.1%只是统计数据。我们与2019-20年的GDP仍有很大差距,与前几年相比,仍然很低。

Obi Wan

Economics and infrastructure aside we Indians should work on education and our culture n attitude we get satisfied by little things 130 crore population youngest population in the world and still 7 medals in Olympic meanwhile China won 80
撇开经济和基础设施不提,我们印度人应该大力发展教育,弘扬文化和摆正态度。13亿人口,世界上最年轻的人口,在奥运会上只拿到7块奖牌,而中国获得了80块奥运奖牌

mandar P

GDP levels are still down from 2019.
印度GDP仍然比2019年时候更低啊

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