外军坛网友讨论:中印边界冲突中,解放军的战略。印度被扒底裤,印度只是一个停止发展的国家罢了!

2022.4.16 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

外军坛网友讨论:中印边界冲突中,解放军的战略。印度被扒底裤,印度只是一个停止发展的国家罢了! 世界看中国-第1张

Abominable Senior Member

Obviously I don’t advocate for war against India because I don’t consider India to be an enemy,just an annoyance at the worst of times.But they have attacked China twice now,they have nuclear weapons with nuclear capable missiles they can’t seem to control.There is also a shift in the language used in Chinese diplomacy when it comes to asserting border issues
Most importantly it seems they will become more isolated from America as an outcome of their policy in the Ukraine confli ct.That’s unlike Japan,Taiwan and South Korea who remain American allies.
Thoughts?
诚然,我不主张对印度开战,因为我不认为印度是敌人,即使是在最坏的情况下,印度也只是中国的一个烦恼而已。但现在他们已经对中国发动两次进攻了,他们拥有核武器和能够搭载核弹头、但并不是很成熟的导弹。中国在针对与印度的边界问题发表主张时,措辞也有所转变。
最重要的是,就印度在乌克兰冲突中的立场看来,他们似乎变得与美国更加疏离。印度看起来与日本、台湾地区和韩国不同,它们仍是美国的盟友。你们的看法是什么?

tphuang Brigadier

Do we really need to be so cruel?The gap between china and India has been growing since when I first started following things in the early 2000s.It’s to the point where things are not even up for discussion anymore unless you believe mki is better than ji6 and rafale is better than j20.
China does not need to attack India.Pakistan can take care of India with the weapons that china is selling We are a poi nt where Pakistan will have military advantage over India despite having 1/1oth the economy.That’s quite amazing.
I would also advocate china to continue to supply weapons to Bangladesh and sri Lanka.
真的有必要这么残忍吗?自从我在21世纪初开始关注这些事情以来,中国和印度之间的差距一直在扩大。除非你相信印度的苏霍伊战机比歼16好,阵风战机比歼20好。
中国不需要攻击印度,把武器卖给巴基斯坦让它来对付印度就可以了。尽管巴基斯坦的经济只有印度的十分之一,但它在军事上比印度更具优势。这一现象是相当惊人的。
同时,中国还可以继续向孟加拉国和斯里兰卡提供武器装备。

Overbom Colonel

China doesn’t need to attack India but India instead keeps bothering China
You just know that incase of a Taiwan scenario,India would jump in to take advantage of China.Its because we know India that this thread which is about the PLA dealing with them,is needed
中国不需要攻击印度,但印度却在一直骚扰中国。
你知道的,一旦台海出现危机,印度就会趁机占中国的便宜,印度的尿性众所周知。所以这个关于解放军该如何对付印度的讨论是很有意义的。

tphuang Brigadier

So what?A couple of border skirmishes.You got the Himalayas.Are you seriously worried about India?
Again,there is Pakistan.The Indian military vastly underperforms its economic potential.We can have a debate about Pak istan/India here,but Pakistan would tie down significant portion of Indian military in any possible scenario.With the Himalaya between India and China,what could India launch(short of nuclear weapon)that would scare PLA?why don’t you give me a scenario and we can decide if that would be a problem for PLA or not.
那又怎样?那只是两场边境小冲突。中印之间还隔着喜马拉雅山,你真的有必要担心印度吗?
还有巴基斯坦。印度军队的表现远远低于其经济表现。在这里我们有必要提起巴基斯坦和印度的关系,巴基斯坦在任何时候都会牵制住印度军队的很大一部分。喜马拉雅山在印度和中国之间,印度可以发射什么(除了核武器)去吓唬解放军?你为什么不给我一个方案,让我们讨论这对解放军来说是不是一个问题。

Abominable Senior Member

I think you’re underestimating India and overestimating Pakistan there.
For one India has nuclear weapons,and their ballistic missiles can target any city in China.Given their lax missile saf ety standards that alone presents a threat.
我认为你低估了印度,高估了巴基斯坦。
首先,印度拥有核武器,他们的弹道导弹可以描准中国的任何城市。考虑到他们松懈的导弹安全标准,这本身就对中国构成了威胁。

dengyeye Junior Member

India would get wrecked in any conventional engagement but the fact they have nukes means they are a threat
印度在任何与中国的常规战争中都会被摧毁,但他们拥有核武器的事实意味着他们始终是中国的一个威胁。

Bigboii Junior Member

even Pakistanis are not as confident in their abilities as you are on theirs:)all we need is the ability to defend ours elves when time comes and not be a pushover anything more is A-not possible B-not even in the doctrine cause of A
就连巴基斯坦人对自己的能力也不像你们对他们的能力那么有信心:)我们所需要的是在必要时保卫自己的能力,让一个很容易就被打败的人做任何更多的事情都是不可能的。

Mohsin77 Senior Member

That is hilariously incorrect,given the historical evidence.
Bro,we have initiated 3 wars with India already over Kashmir.We basically launched the ist war the day we became independent,lolz.We didn’t even have control of our own army yet!The British hadn’t even left.They were packing their bags,and…
Pakistan comes up and says”hey guyz,so….we just launched a war,can we have the keys to our Army?”
And the Brits were like”Wtf?!no!You can’t launch a war!”
And we were like”But…we kinda did that already,so…keys?”
^This isn’t even an exaggeration,it’s basically literally what happened in’47
And we launched 2 more wars since then,in’65 and’99.So clearly,simply’defending’ourselves is not the actual”doctr ine”of Pakistan.It never has been,because we have unsettled disputes and a justified casus belli.
从历史证据来看,这是个可笑的错误。
兄弟,为了克什米尔,我们已经和印度发生了三次战争。我们基本上在独立的那一天就发动了第一次战争,哈哈,那时我们甚至还没能控制自己的军队!英国人甚至还没有离开。他们正在收拾行李,然后…
巴基斯坦说:“嘿,伙计们,是这样我们刚刚发动了一场战争,所以我们能拥有掌控军队的钥匙吗?”
而英国人则会说:“搞什么?!不可以!你不能发动战争!”
我们说:“但是我们已经这么做了,所以…钥匙呢?”
这一点都不夸张,这基本上就是1947年发生的事情。
从那以后,我们又发动了两场战争,分别是在1965年和1999年。所以很明显,仅仅“保卫”自己从来都不是巴基斯坦真正的信条”,因为我们还有着未解决的争端和合理的开战理由。
The question is not if we will launch a war again,but when.And no,nukes aren’t going to stop us from attacking(we alr eady proved that in Kargil.)The only reason Pakistan isn’t launching anything right now is because we’ve been passing through horrible economic conditions(of our own making)and we do not have the capacity to mount offensives.But eventually,when we become strong enough again,war is going to be back on the table,unless a diplomatic solution can be reached fir st(and obviously a diplomatic solution would be great,but India has never been interested in that.)
Now,obviously,many think that Pakistan will never have the capacity to mount offensives against India again.Well,I re mind them again,the ist offensive we launched was when we didn’t even officially have a frekkin army!lolz.It’s not a task that is forever”impossible.”There are war plans designed for it even now in the GHQ,which won’t be very effective to day,but eventually,a day will come when one might be,iA.
问题不在于我们是否会再次发动战争,而在于我们会在何时发动战争。不,核武器不会阻止我们的进攻(我们已经在卡吉尔之战中证明了这一点)。巴基斯坦现在没有发动任何行动的唯一原因是我们经历了(我们自己造成的可怕的经济危机,目前我们没有能力发动进攻。但最终,当我们变得足够强大时,战争将重新掀翻谈判桌,除非印巴之间提前达成外交解决方案(显然外交解决方案很好,但印度从未对此感兴趣)。
现在,很明显,许多人认为巴基斯坦永远不会有能力再次对印度发动进攻。好吧,我再次提醒他们,我们发动的第一次进攻是在我们还没有正式的军队的时候1所以,这并不是一个永远“不可能”的任务。即使是现在,巴基斯坦总司令部也有着针对印度的战争计划,虽然现在还不是用上它的时候,但最终,巴基斯坦总有一天会执行这样的计划的。

Abomina ble Senior Member

I imagine the Indians will most likely be waiting for a broader conflict like Taiwan to emerge.Just ballistic missiles w ith conventional warheads could do damage to Chinese military sites.
我想印度人很可能会等待像台海冲突那样的影响更广泛的冲突出现。并且仅仅是带有常规弹头的弹道导弹就能对中国的军事基地造成破坏。

Jason_New Member

Trying to pick a fight using conventional ballistic missiles with China would be dumbest strategy possible.Not only do C hina have a vastly superior arsenal but the geography massively stacks against India.
试图用常规弹道导弹与中国开战是最愚蠢的策略。中国不仅拥有比印度强大得多的核武库,并且它的地理位置决定了它在面对印度时更占有地利因素。

MelianPretext Just Hatched

It isn’t in China’s interests to play in America’s hand by falling into a conflict with India.The fundamental reason Sino-Indian relations have been poisoned is through British malice via the London-drawn border lines.Getting bogged down by Western divide and conquer a second time in South Asia at this critical period of challenging Western hegemony would be po tentially catastrophic.
That said,there is a non-zero chance that the far future will see conflict between China and India.The latter,after all,is a lower riparian country and an often forgotten tension in South Asia is that of water usage rights.As long term climate change renders South Asia more and more prone to heat waves,water demand on the sub-continent will significantly in crease.
如果中国与印度在美国的操控下发生冲突,这将不符合中国的利益。中印关系受到毒害的根本原因是那条英国私自划定的满怀恶意的边界线。在这个挑战西方霸权的关键时期,南亚地区第二次陷入西方通过分而治之造成的困境将是潜在的灾难性事件。也就是说,在遥远的未来,中国和印度之间发生冲突的可能性并不为零。毕竟,后者是一个下游国家,在南亚有一个经常被遗忘的冲突诱因是用水权问题。随着世界气候变化的不断加剧,这使得南亚越来越容易发生旱灾,南亚次大陆的用水需求将显著增加。
One key facet of the Indian geostrategic aim in claiming Aksai Chin is that it can act as a springboard on the Tibetan plateau in projecting onto and potentially seizing the Third Pole.All of the great rivers of continental South,South-East and East Asia(the Indus,the Brahmaputra,the Mekong,the Chang Jiang/Yangtze,the Huang He/Yellow)all have their source from China’s Third Pole.While China’s maritime geography,constrained by the first island chain,is unfortunate,the Thi rd Pole makes China’s western geography supremely advantageous through its upper riparian control.
Even if India refrains from actual invasion of the Third Pole,the mere threat that the Indian control of Aksai Chin pose salone could act as leverage in its water rights negotiations with China.
印度宣称拥有阿克赛钦主权的一个关键因素是为了其地缘战略目标的实现,印度想要该地区作为它的一个跳板,让它可以在青藏高原上投射力量并逐步夺取第三极。南亚、东南亚和东亚大陆上所有的大河(恒河、雅鲁藏布江、泪公河、长江、黄河)都起源于中国的第三极。不幸的是,中国的海洋地理受制于第一岛链,而它通过对第三极上各个大河源头的控制,使中国在该地区的地缘政治上具有极大的优势。
即使印度侵占第三极的预测不切实际,印度对阿克赛钦的安全所构成的威胁,也可能在印度与中国的水权谈判中起到杠杆作用
注:兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区有时被称为世界的“第三极”。
This is why,after half a century since the Sino-Indian war,India still has not”seen reason”and buried the hatchet with China by settling the claims in the Himalayas.This is also why the chances of any settlement on the matter in the nearterm is less than optimistic.With no settlement on the border issue,achieving stable and positive Sino-Indian relations is also unlikely given that repeats of clashes like Galwan could be incited by the Indian side at any time,tanking any re conciliation efforts like Galwan did to the past mildly tepid detente of the 2010s.
这就是为什么在中印战争爆发半个世纪后,印度仍未“醒悟”,它仍然不愿通过放弃对喜马拉雅地区的领土主张与中国达成和解。这也是为什么这一问题能够在短期内得到解决的可能性并不大。如果边界问题得不到解决,中印关系也不太可能实现稳定和积极的发展,因为印度随时都可能发动像加尔万山谷冲突这样的冲突,并像加尔万山谷冲突击垮中印边境自2010年以来的和平一样击垮中国方面的和解努力。
For China’s part,it can only anticipate that the Indian challenge is a long term threat to the Third Pole that will onlyincrease as time goes on.For now,in the midst of challenging American hegemony,China is studiously avoiding the matter as overtly antagonizing India would firmly entrench it in QUAD to China’s detriment and risk giving Indian jingoists the impression they could potentially settle the matter now while China is bogged down with the West.
However,at that time,China should make it emphatic that any encroachment onto the Third Pole(of which Aksai Chin is th e first slice of the salami)is a scenario that would merit nuclear reprisal onto India and that the only way to settle In dia’s water usage security will always be through the channel of dialogue with China.
对中国来说,它能预见到印度的挑战是对其第三极安全的长期威胁,随着时间的推移,这种威胁只会不断增大。目前,在挑战美国霸权的过程中,中国在刻意回避这个问题,因为强硬地处理印度的威胁将巩固印度在四方会谈中的地位,这对中国不利,并可能给印度沙文主义者留下这样的印象,即在中国与西方的对抗陷入僵局时,他们就可以抓住时机解决这个问题了。
然而在那个时候,中国应该强调,印度任何侵犯第三极(阿克赛钦是第一片香肠)的行动都会给印度带来来自中国的报复。解决印度用水安全的唯一方法是建立与中国对话的渠道,通过协商解决。

ZeEasKPul Captain

It’s laughable that India could muster the military power to harm China in any scenario,including the one where China isengaged in a full-scale war with the US in the Pacific.India cannot project military power against China either across t he Himalayas or in the Indian Ocean.Although the PLA would be capable of conducting strikes across India with impunity(e specially after the introduction of systems like the H-20),invading India would be an entirely different matter.If theP LA is a meat grinder,India can afford to throw mountains of bodies into the grinder until it jams.
可笑的是,印度可以在任何情况下集结军事力量来伤害中国,包括中国在太平洋与美国进行全面战争时。印度无法在喜马拉雅山脉己方一次或印度洋上向中国投射军事力量。尽管解放军有能力向印度各地发动攻击而不怕遭受报复(特别是在轰-20等装备服役之后),但这与入侵印度是完全不同的事情。如果把解放军比做绞肉机,印度则可以把堆积如山的尸体扔进绞肉机,直到它卡住。

Mohsin77 Senior Member

Anyways,getting back to the OP.
China shouldn’t worry about dealing with India directly.They have bigger fish to fry right now.
不管怎样,回到原题。
中国并不想与印度发生直接冲突,因为他们现在还有更重要的事要做。

Bellum_Romanum Major

Good thought proviking thread that requires an equally careful though provoking analysis.So instead of offering my pedes trian views on this matter I am going to simply leave the lix of the podcast discussion from the Asian Peace Dialogue started with Professor Kishore Mahbubani and his discussion to delved into the Sino-India geopolitical issues stemming from the past,that’s being dealt into the current contemporary times.Give it a listen(am still listening to the podcast)and c ome back to discuss what you think of the ideas presented by both Professors Mahbubani,and Bajpai.
很好的思路,它需要一个同样细致且发人深省的分析。因此,我不会就此事发表我粗浅的看法,我将在这里留下亚洲和平对话的播客讨论的链接,该讨论由马凯硕教授发起,这个讨论深入地探讨了中印地缘政治问题,以及当下该怎么妥善处理。在座的各位可以听一听(我还在听播客),然后再回来讨论你们对里边两位教授提出的观点的看法。

Jason_New Member

According to Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism school of international relations,now is exactly the time for China to useevery means in its disposal to limit and contain India’s growth.If China delays,and wait until India grow to be a form idable power,it would be to late.
Indeed,the greatest strategic failure and the cause of American geopolitical headache today is that in the 2000s when Ch ina was comparatively much weaker,the US thought that terrorists driving pick-up trucks were the”bigger fish to fry.”
根据米尔斯海默的进攻性现实主义国际关系学来说,现在正是中国利用一切手段遏制印度发展的时候。如果中国拖延下去,等到印度成长为一个强大的力量,那时候就太晚了。
事实上,当今美国最大的战略失败和为地缘政治烦恼的原因是,在21世纪头十年中国相对弱小的时期里,美国认为消灭驾驶皮卡的恐怖分子是“更重要的事情”。

Botnet New Member

Why should China need to do that when India is already committing seppuku?
印度已经切腹了,为什么中国还要这么做?

TeEasKw Member

India has repeatedly danced on the knife-edgeOHow can you blame China
印度这是反复在刀尖上跳舞啊,这能怪中国吗?

tphuang Brigadier

And just how are you planning to do this?Attack India unprovoked?I cannot think of a worse decision to do than attackin g a country with nuclear weapons unprovoked.
Isolate it economically?Well,they are running a giant manufacturing surplus against India.Why would it do that?The cu rrent China/India engagement is overwhelmingly in China’s favor.
India is going to keep growing and become a super power in its own right.America is extremely stupid if it thinks India will follow its direction long term.
China going out of its way try to destroy India for just minor border skirmishes will backfire badly.
那你打算怎么做呢?无缘无故地攻击印度?我想不出比无端使用核武器攻击一个国家更糟糕的决定了。
制裁印度的经济吗?他们对印度有巨大的贸易顺差。为什么会这样?因为当前中国和印度的贸易压倒性地有利于中国。印度的实力将继续增长,它会凭自己的实力成为超级大国。如果美国认为印度会长期遵循自己的命令,那它就太愚蠢了。
中国为了小规模的边界冲突而试图摧毁印度的行为将会产生严重的反作用。
There is only one logical way to stay ahead of India.That will be to do what they’ve done for the past 20 years.Keep growing economically,militarily,technologically and socially.The gap in national power between China and India has never been larger.We are at a point where China can legitimately supply weapons to Pakistan that will overwhelm India.If you a re worried about India militarily,supporting Pakistan with high quality exports is the best counter weight.
How would India be able to mount offensive against China if Pakistan gets FC-31s and GJ-11(or similar UCAVs)+ modern ar tilleries that would easily be able to destroy India air defense systems?
只有一个合乎逻辑的方法可以使中国保持其对印度的领先。这就是他们过去20年所做的事情,保持经济、军事、技术和社会力量的增长。中国和印度之间的国力差距从未如此之大。中国可以合法地向巴基斯坦提供武器,这将拖垮印度。如果你担心印度的军事力量,用高质量的武器出口支持巴基斯坦将是维持印巴力量平衡的最佳手段。
如果巴基斯坦能拥有歼-31和GJ-11(“利剑”隐形超音速无人机)+现代化火炮,它就可以轻松摧毁印度的防空系统,印度还怎么能够对中国发动进攻呢?

Jason_New Member

No,not at all.Rather China ought to take a page from the American playbook:ban exports of dual use technology,prohibi t Chinese investments in Indian infrastructure,periodically stage exercises on the Tibetan plateau,fund and train’freed om fighters’,create an alliance of partners that encircles India,station a CBG in the Indian Ocean,etc.
Bait India into overreacting,Force India into an arms races it cannot win.Remember we are talking about a country that domestically believes itself to be militarily much stronger than China.
不,你说的狗屁不通。中国应该采取美国的惯用策略,即制定军用和民用技术的出口禁令,禁止中国公司投资印度的基础设施建设,定期在青藏高原进行军事演习,资助和训练“自由战士”,创建一个环绕印度的军事联盟,并在印度洋部署一个航母战斗群等等。
引诱印度反应过度。强迫印度进入一场它不可能赢的军备竞赛。记住,我们谈论的是一个国内民众普遍认为自己国家在军事上比中国强大得多的国家。
Here is the thing,HAL and DRDO may look like a joke today,but twenty years ago who would have thought Chengdu the maker of knockoff MiG-21 can mass produce stealth fighters?Who would have thought the navy whose most advance warship was the051C will pump out 055s?Would it not be a national security catastrophe for China if India is able to replicate what China did and control the Indian Ocean,threatening every BRI projects in its vicinity?If there are things China can do to av oid or diminish the likelihood of this dreadful possibility,shouldn’t China do it?How about creating immediate security challenges so that India blow its budget on more overpriced Rafales now instead of long term investments into its domestic industry?
事情是这样的。印度斯坦航空公司和印度国防研究及发展组织在今天看起来像是一个笑话,但20年前,谁会想到成都的一个山寨米格-21的制造商在以后能批量生产隐形战机呢?谁会想到中国海军最先进的战舰会从051C变成055大驱呢?如果印度能够复制中国的做法,控制印度洋,它将威胁到其附近的每一个“一带一路”项目,这难道不是中国的国家安全灾难吗?如果中国可以做一些事情来避免或减少这种可怕情况出现的可能性,难道中国不应该去做吗?中国不如直接通过制造印度的安全危机,让印度把国防预算花在价格过高的阵风战机上,而不是对国内工业的长期投资上?

ZeEasKPul Captain

Obviously,no one has a crystal ball and the usual caveats about underestimating an enemy apply,but what you’re describi ng is highly unlikely for a whole host of reasons.
What specifically should China be doing that it currently isn’t?
显然,没有人会有一个预知未来的水晶球。而且,通常意义上的关于低估敌人的警告适用于你,并且你所描述的场景是非常不可能发生的,因为一系列的原因。
中国具体应该做些什么而目前还没有做呢?

tphuang Brigadier

China aready creates and alliance of partners that encircles India’s.It ha no reason to station a cbg I.Indian ocean wh en the aircraft and ships exported to pakistan can do just that.They already excerises on tibetan plateaus and frequently bring higher end gears there.
Banning high tech export would only make sense if India can’t get them elsewhere.Its more like for India to by Chinesee xport than vice versa on security ground.
India already thinks it’s in an arms race it cannot win.
What china has achieved in the past 20 years in military has most likely never been achieved before.With India’s broken and inefficient procurement process,there is no reason to believe mca will end up in a better place than lca.What chinahas done is already pretty threatening to India.Do we really need to get bothered by desperate cries of a weaker nation?
中国已经建立了包围印度的伙伴联盟,但它没有理由在印度洋部署一个航母战斗群,因为它出口到巴基斯坦的飞机和舰船就能达到同样的效果。他们已经在青藏高原上反复进行军事演习了,而且还经常在那里试验高端军事设备。
只有当印度无法从其他地方获得高科技产品时,禁止高科技出口才有意义。在国防安全技术方面,更多时候是印度向中国出口,而不是相反。
印度认为自己已经身处在一场不可能赢的军备竞赛里了。
中国过去20年在军事上取得的成就很可能是它以前从未取得过的。由于印度的军备采购五花八门且效率低下,我们没有理由相信武器万国造的军事系统最终会比武器自研的军事系统更好。中国已经对印度构成了相当大的威胁。难道中国真的需要被一个弱国绝望的哭喊所困扰吗?

dengyeye Junior Member

China 20 years ago had all the hallmarks of an ascending military power:a booming economy and industrial base,an increa singly educated and vast pool of talent to draw from,and the political will to implement reforms.That being said,if you told anyone in 2002 where China was today,you’d likely be strapped to a chair and sent to the mental asylum.It’s easy t o extrapolate the trajectory of history in hindsight.China has,by every measure,smashed expectations of economic,indus trial,technological,and military growth.
India today shows none of these hallmarks.Issues of caste,religion and bureaucracy continue to plague the country’s development.If anything,these problems have only intensified under Modi and the nationalistic BJP.Until significant stepsare taken to address these issues and improve its stock of human capital,India will not be the’next China’.India in 20years time will just be a slightly better version of India today.
20年前的中国拥有着一个正在崛起的军事大国的所有特征:蓬勃发展的经济和工业基础,不断增长的国民教育水平和巨大的人才储备,以及实施改革的政治意愿。也就是说,如果你在2002年告诉任何人中国今天的情况,你很可能会被绑在椅子上送进精神病院。我们很容易以后见之明来推断历史的轨迹。从各个方面来看,中国都打破了人们对其经济、工业、技术和军事增长的预期
今天的印度没有表现出这些特征。种姓、宗教和官僚主义问题继续困扰着这个国家的发展。如果有什么区别的话,这些问题在奉行民族主义的莫迪和人民党的领导下只会加剧。除非印度采取重大措施来解决这些问题,并改善其人力资本存量,否则印度不会成为“下一个中国”。20年后的印度将可能只是比今天的印度稍微好一点。

takwb New Member

These are great points.
And let’s also not forget that the huge east wind that aided China’s ascent as an industrial power house,which was the fastest and largest ever in human history,was the US centric globalization which ended to years after the Great Financial Crisis.
The world is evolving from globalization of economies to regionalization with China,US,and EU centric trade blocks.
And India is not a part in any one of the three,while its economy and market is too small to be a pole by itself.
这些都是很好的观点。
我们也不要忘记,推动中国成为人类历史上效率最快、规模最大的工业强国的巨大东风是以美国为中心的全球化,这场全球化可能会在十年后的一场经济危机后终结。
世界正从经济全球化走向以中国、美国、欧盟为中心的经济区域化。
而印度并不是这三个国家中的任何一个,并且它的经济规模和市场都太小了,不足以支撑它独自成为一极。

dengyey Junior Member

Yes,and we should be eternally grateful to Indian leadership for f”cking itself before and during those crucial years ofgrowth,allowing China to cement undisputed status as the world’s factory,instead of fighting with India for manufacturing,exports and investment.In fact,India is kind enough to continue f*cking itself to this day and shows zero signs ofs topping.Which is why there is no need for China to do anymore than what it is already doing to’contain’India.This is nothing like the US-China situation in the late gos to early 00s,where the champion failed to stop and by in large facil itated the ascension of a hungry challenger.Here,India is the one stopping itself.
是的,中国应该永远感谢印度的领导层,他们在中国经济增长的关键时期,让中国巩固了无可争议的世界工厂地位,而不是与之争夺在制造业、产品出口和境外投资方面的冠军地位。事实上,印度很善良,它直到今天还在自暴自弃,而且没有任何停止的迹象。这就是为什么中国没有必要去做更多的事情,除了它已经在做的“遏制”印度的举动。这与上世纪90年代末到本世纪初的中美两国的情况完全不同,当时的冠军并没有袖手旁观,而它的举措在很大程度上促成了一个饥饿的挑战者的崛起。而如今,印度只是一个停止发展的国家罢了。

Coalescence Junior Member

Indeed,we’re going back to bloc-based/regional trading like the ones we see in Cold war.I do think India will eventuall y find which bloc to settle in once it becomes more clear as majority of countries choose their sides and consolidate thei rtrade.
I want to further add that we’re going to go to a period of instability.Internal coups,power struggles and espionage wi Il become place,and instability will become more of a regular occurrence than the last cold war,beca use of climate chang e and systems becoming more complex,requiring many different type of resources like rare earth metals,natural gas and mi nerals.
Countries may turn more”authoritarian”,needing to monitor and control the population from revolting due to instability and discontent,and for possible subversive elements.The thing that scares me the most,is we might ended up reversing a lot of globalized systems like the Internet and scientific collaboration,shifting to more of a local and regional system.
We’re living in interesting times,and I hope it doesn’t descend to nuclear annihilation and total collapse.
事实上,我们正在回到冷战时期那种以集团为基础的区域贸易。我确实认为,随着大多数国家选择了自己的阵营并加强了集团成员间的贸易,一旦情况变得更加明确,印度最终一定会找到适合自己的阵营。
我想进一步补充的是,我们将进入一个不稳定的时期。世界上的内部政变、权力斗争和间谋活动将愈加频繁的出现,这种混乱将比上次冷战时期更加严重,这是因为气候变化愈加严重,国家系统的运转变得更加复杂,现在的国家需要许多不同类型的资源,如稀土、金属、天然气和矿物。
各个国家政府可能会变得更加“独裁”,因为它们需要监控和控制国民,防止国民因混乱和不满而造反,防止颠覆分子的出现。最让我害怕的是,我们最终可能会摧毁很多全球化的系统,比如互联网和科学合作,而转向更多的地方和区域系统。
我们都生活在一个有趣的时代,我希望它不会沦落到被核毁灭和全面崩溃。

AndrewS Brigadier

2001 was when the term BRICS was coined at Goldman Sachs.
So back then,it was already conceivable that China would become a comprehensive military power
2001年,高盛创造了“金砖国家”一词。
所以,在当时,中国成为一个综合性军事大国已经是可以预见的事了。

Mohsin77 Senior Member

Your analogy works against your own thesis.
If China goes to war with India and ignores the US,that would be like the US war on Afghanistan while it ignored China.
I think China’s indirect approach with India is sufficient for now.
China actually does have’bigger fish’unlike the US’s miscalculation in 2000.
India can be a major annoyance,but the US is the actual threat for China.
And there really isn’t much of a chance of India outpacing China in 20 years,like China did with the US since 2000.
你的类比与你自己的论点不符。
如果中国无视美国而与印度开战,那就像美国无视中国而对阿富汗开战一样。
我认为中国与印度的间接接触目前已经足够了。
中国确实有“更重要的事情”去做,这和美国在2000年的误判不能一概而论。
印度可能是个大麻烦,但美国才是中国的真正威胁。
而且,印度在20年内超越中国的可能性真的不大,就像中国自2000年至今都未超越美国一样。

tphuang Brigadier

Exactly.If China is more concerned about India,it can work hard to supply Bangladesh with J-10Cs,VT4s and SH-15S.
With India finally feeling the pressure of being”in America’s corner”,China’s best move is to work on breaking up that relationship rather than strengthening that relationship by being overly aggressive against India.
完全正确。如果中国更担心印度,它完全可以向孟加拉国供应歼-10C战斗机、VT4主战坦克和SH-15型车载加榴炮。随着印度终于感受到“站在美国一边”的压力,中国的最佳举措是努力打破印美的这种关系,而不是通过对印度过于咄咄逼人的施压来加强这种关系。

FADH1791 New Member

I don’t think much has to change.Chinas water diplomacy is putting pressure on India.China should just keep doing whatit’s doing.Keep arming Pakistan.Without nukes India can beat Pakistan but it would be a bloody Pyrrhic victory for the m.You add China to this war and India loses very badly.They would run out of ammo after 2 weeks of fighting according to war game scenarios.The Indian military brass knows this but the politicians don’t care.So the plan should be the threa tof a two front war.If for example China is fighting the US and India tries to open another front that should be a signal to Pakistan to attack India.Even if the US tries to supply India the war would still go badly for New Delhi.Historical ly it’s rare for a nation to be able to win a two front war.Only the Israelis come to mind to be able to do that.
我不认为中国有什么需要改变的。中国的水外交正在对印度施加压。中国应该继续做它正在做的事情,继续增强巴基斯坦的军事力量。不使用核武器的话,印度也可以打败巴基斯坦,但对他们来说,这将是一个血淋淋的惨胜。如果中国加入这场战争中,印度将输得很惨。根据战争游模拟推断,印度军队会在战斗开始的2周后耗尽弹药。印度军方高层知道这一点,但他们的政客们不在乎。因此,中国计划应该是对印度进行两线战争的威胁。例如,如果中国在对抗美国,而印度试图开辟另一条战线时,这应该是巴基斯坦攻击印度的信号。即使美国试图向印度提供物资,这场战争对新德里来说仍将是不利的。历史上,能够赢得两线作战的国家是罕见的,只有以色列做到过这一点。
But they had help from the west and their enemies were very incompetent.In India’s case a war with China would quickly be a two front war.And the casualties they would suffer be horrendous.All Pakistan can do is muster the majority of its military focus to fight India.China half of its military focus.India would be divided on how they would fight.They have massive manpower but they lack a good defense industry.They import their military tech.Once they run out of bullets wha thappens next?This is why the US hasn’t really tried to make India into a major ally to confront China.Simply because India is in a strategic hard place.On paper it makes sense to support India but once war starts they would be fighting in all sides and it would be difficult to support them.India would be more of a liability.
India would be like the Austrian Hungarian empire in WW1.On paper strong but once they fight multiple fronts would need to be rescued by their more powerful allies.
但以色列得到了西方的帮助,他们的敌人也是软弱无能的。就印度而言,与中国的战争很快就会变成两条战线的战争,他们将遭受可怕的伤亡。巴基斯坦所能做的就是集中大部分军事力量对抗印度,这样中国将它一半的注意力放在印度身上就可以了。印度将在如何作战的问题上产生分歧,他们有大量的人力,但他们缺乏良好的国防工业。他们的武器依赖进口,一旦他们用光了子弹,接下来将会发生什么?这就是为什么美国没有真正试图让印度成为对抗中国的主要力量。原因很简单,因为印度处于战略困境。在口头上支援印度是很容易的,但一旦战争开始,印度将在各个方向作战,美国将很难支援他们。印度更像是美国的一个累赘
印度就像一战时的奥匈帝国。名义上很强大,但一旦他们在多条战线进行战斗,它就需要更强大的盟友来拯救他们了。

Abominable Senior Member

Topography of India:
印度的地形:

Overbom Colonel

I don’t get this thread intended topic.Should this be an Indian-China geopolitical discussion or purely for PLA(militar y)discussion regarding India,or both?
As you are the OP,@Abominable,can you clarify?
我不明白这个帖子的主题。这是中印之间的地缘政治讨论,还是纯粹的关于印度的军事讨论,或者两者都有?
既然你是楼主,@Abaminable,你能解释一下吗?

Abominable Senior Member

The military discussion.I’ll post my own thoughts in a few days.
军事讨论。过几天我会把自己的想法贴出来。

sndef888 Senior Member

The India front will remain a non issue as long as India doesn’t have a sth gen fighter that can challenge the J20 for do minance.
China can easily inflict much more pain on India by striking deep into their country than India can in return.
只要印度没有可以挑战歼-20统治地位的第五代战机,战争的前线推至印度境内就不是问题。
中国可以很轻易地对印度造成巨大的痛苦,它可以通过打击印度城市给与印度更多的报复。

Broccoli Senior Member

Indians can design weapons but manufacturing them on mass production basis is lacking.
American military and non-military sources still report that even older longer-range missiles like the Agni III is only i n limited deployment even thought it was first time succesfully tested 2007,maybe their next gen fully composite missiles are easier to manufacture,but even extremely important weapons like that are very slowly manufactured.
Example of slow pace of weapon development:India test launched their first all composite missiles last year.
If those problems aren’t fixed India will always be behind China in any war scenario.
印度人可以设计武器,但缺乏大规模生产武器的工业基础。
美国军事和非军事来源报告,更古老的远程导弹仍像烈火三是只在有限的部署甚至认为这是第一次成功测试了2007,也许下一个创完全复合导弹更容易制造,但即使这样的极其重要的武器制造非常缓慢。
根据美国军方和非军方消息披露来说,即使是像烈火II这样比较老式的远程导弹,印度也只是进行了有限的部署,哪怕这款导弹在2007年就第一次成功试射。也许他们的下一代复合导弹会更容易制造,但要知道的是,像这样重要的武器,它的制造速度是非常缓慢的。
印度武器发展缓慢的一个例子是:印度去年试射了他们的第一枚复合导弹。如果这些问题得不到解决,印度在任何战争场景中都将永远落后于中国。

MrCrazyBoyRavi Junior Member

This thread is so unnecessary.Both India/China will never have land war except some border skirmishes.And noone will be able to hold land due to H imalayas&cold inhospitable mountains.No nuclear war since there will be no large scale i nvasuon by either party.May be a naval conflict but Indian Navy is pathetic.If somehow land disput is resolved India/Chi na can co exist harmoniously as distinct economical block.
这个讨论是如此的不必要。印度和中国永远不会发生陆地战争,除了一些边界冲突。至于喜马拉雅山脉和其它寒冷的不适宜居住的山脉,没有人能够一直待在那里。不会爆发核战争,因为任何一方都不会大规模入侵另一方。也许可能会发生海军冲突,但这对印度海军来说是场悲剧。如果两国的土地争端得到解决,印度和中国将可以作为不同的经济集团和谐共存。

Abominable Senior Member

A large scale invasion is possible.China could do what Russia did with Belarus and base soldiers out of Pakistan,Myanma r,Bengladesh.
发生大规模入侵是可能的。中国可以效仿俄罗斯在白俄罗斯的做法,在巴基斯坦、缅甸和孟加拉国驻军。

FriedButter Junior Member

With what logistics?You are gonna need way more then just a few million troops to secure a population of a billion peopl e.Your topography map you posted earlier shows India is surrounded by mountains on all sides.There will need to be logis tical support for several million soldiers across these mountains.
Here is a better image of the topography of India and Myanmar.
Such an invasion would only result in a blunder that is worst than anything the US or the West has ever done.
后勤怎么办?要想控制十亿的人口,你需要的军队远不止几百万而已。你之前发布的地形图显示,印度四面环山。你还需要穿越这些山脉为数百万士兵提供后勤支持。这是一张比较清楚的印度和细甸的地貌图。
这样的入侵只会导致比美国或西方做过的任何蠢事都严重的错误。