对比过去四年中印两国的经济增长量,印度网友:四年又增长了一个印度!

2022.4.27 发布在 世界看中国 栏目

对比过去四年中印两国的经济增长量,印度网友:四年又增长了一个印度! 世界看中国-第1张

India has barely grown AT ALL in the past 4 years
印度在过去的4年里几乎没有增长
India gdp in 2017 was 2.65 trillion and in was 2.85 trillion in 2021.A growth of barely 200 billion in 4 years,average of 1.7%per year,which is absolutely crazy for a developing country
China meanwhile has grown from 13.89 trillion to 17.7 trillion in the same time,a growth of 3.81 trillion
If India doesn’t have explosive growth(I’m talking over 10%a year)in the next 1o years,India will truly never be ableto catch up to china.Looking at how slowly reforms are taking place i dont think it’s going to happen.Even UNCTAD predi cts only 4.6%in 2022.Much more likely to fall into a low/middle income trap instead.
2017年印度的gdp为2.65万亿,2021年为2.85万亿。4年内只有堪堪2000亿的增长,平均每年1.7%,这对一个发展中国家来说是绝对疯狂的。
与此同时,中国在同一时间段内从13.89万亿增长到17.7万亿,增长了3.81万亿。
如果印度在未来10年内没有爆炸性的增长(我的意思是每年超过10%),印度将真的永远无法赶上中国。看看改革的速度有多慢,我不认为这将会发生。甚至连UNCTAD也预测2022年只有4.6%。更有可能印度从此落入中/低收入陷阱。

Youtube网友评论:

therealsid12

Manufacturing and production management has been the biggest concern for our country.
Don’t know about other sectors but I desperately want the semi conductor industry to flourish in India.But the biggeste nemy of our country is corruption which slows down the development process.
制造和生产管理一直是我国最关心的问题。
不知道其他行业的情况,但我迫切希望半导工业能在印度蓬勃发展。但我们国家最大的敌人是腐败,它拖慢了发展进程。

Shady4555

Manufacturing and production management has been the biggest concern for our country.
And that is directly related to our pathetic infrastructure.Huge companies setup their manufacturing plants in china is due to their fantastic infrastructure.
“制造和生产管理一直是我国最关心的问题。”
而这与我们可怜的基础设施直接相关。大型公司在中国建立他们的制造工厂是由于他们拥有美妙的基础设施。

ConfidentMedia5408

its also the supply chain.That’s the biggest plus over infrastructure and labor.If you don’t find a supplier that has e xactly what you want,you will have 20 alternatives to pick from in China source:have manufactured products in China
它还包括供应链。这是比基础设施和劳动力更大的优势。如果你没有找到一个完全满足你需求的供应商,在中国你还会有20个替代品可以选择。
信息来源:在中国生产过产品

ConfidentMedia5408

all the Modi supporters keep talking about gov policies but the statistics are clear that manufacturing as a%of the eco nomy has been consistently going down
所有莫迪的支持者一直在谈论政府的政策,但统计数据很清楚地表明,制造业在经济中的比例一直在下降。

bikbarı

Just opening up the economy can’t take a country much farther.
Proper planning is required for developing a nation at a constant speed.That’s what Japan,China,Taiwan and South Korea did.
单纯地开放经济并不能让一个国家走得更远。
要想以恒定的速度发展一个国家,需要适当的规划。这就是日本、中国、台湾(地区)和韩国的做法。

ΠIM usician312

Social investments are the magic sauce especially education,health and environment
社会投资是魔法调料,特别是在教育、健康和环境领域

Ornery-Bite

Philippines did it,but I don’t see them in the league of developed nations.
菲律宾就是这么干的,但我没在发达国家清单中看到它的名字。

CarbonTail

New Delhi
I highly highly recommend watching this incredibly insightful interview of Dr.Raghuram Rajan,hosted by Karan Thapar for The Wire(a digital news publication).
Dr.Rajan talks about how india should be playing to its strengths(that being a services exporter)and build a services export oriented economy instead of solely focusing on manufacturing.Also talks a lot about how we should be focusing ong etting the basics right–primary healthcare,basic education,access to services,etc.
He also goes into great depths in terms of the whole socio-political climate currently prevailing in our country.
我强烈推荐大家观看拉胡拉姆-拉詹博士的这篇极具洞察力的采访,该采访由卡兰-塔帕尔为The Wire(一份数字新闻出版物)主持。
拉詹博士谈到了印度应该如何发挥其优势(即服务出口国),建立一个以服务出口为导向的经济,而不是只关注制造业。他还谈了很多关于我们应该如何专注于做好基本工作的问题——初级医疗保健、基础教育、服务获取等。
他还深入探讨了我国目前普遍存在的整个社会政治气候。

awaken ywnmmsb

For our market size Oligopoly type of economies won’t suit.
We need a mix of American style capitalism with Uk style policies.
Unfortunately we are mixing between American capitalism with oligopolies.
对于我们的市场规模来说,寡头垄断型的经济并不适合。
我们需要美国式的资本主义与英国式的政策的混合。
不幸的是,我们正在美国式的资本主义与寡头垄断之间混合。

crazyredditor47

NCT of Delhi Can you elaborate on uk style policies?Thanks
你能详细介绍一下什么是英国的式政策吗?谢谢

awaken_ywnmmsb

In US industry lobbies dictate policy&almost make the game one sided for the businesses.Self regulation is a very part of it.
In UK you have each company lobbying as well bureaucracy thinks on it own.In this way you don’t have one sided policy&neither do you get a system which is rigged for businesses completely.
Basically Businesses&government jointly draft policies butit’s not completely self regulated.
Obviously exceptions exist in both countries.Look at majority.
在美国,行业游说团体决定了国家政策,几乎使游戏成为企业的单边操纵。自我监管是它的一个非常重要的部分。
在英国,每个公司也有游说,但是官僚机构也有自己的思考。这样一来,你就不会出现单方面的政策,也不会有一个完全为企业所操纵的系统。
基本上是企业和政府共同起草相关政策,而不完全是企业的自我管理。
显然,这两个国家都存在例外情况。所有只看大多数。

iVarun

What sort of suggestion is this?
And what era of American&UK style are you referencing because if it’s the post 70-8os then you have to give example sof Developing countries who made it to developed status under that form of system.
And you will struggle to name even 1.You won’t even be able to name US and UK themselves given that their decline was cast due to their actions and system’s change post 8os.They started regressing as a collective because of the actions they took in this time.
History is an open book,Becoming Developed state is not a secret given 2 dozen countries did it and nearly all did it in a similar-ish(since obviously,it can’t be an absolutely exact copy)way.
And NONE of them did it the post 8os US-UK way or the Indian way(after Nehru).
这是什么鬼建议?
你指的是美国和英国哪个时代的方式?因为如果是70-80年代,那么你必须举出在那个时间段后以这种体制从一个发展中国家发展成为发达国家的例子。
你根本一个名字都说不出来。你甚至无法用美国和英国自身作为获得成功的例子,因为他们的衰落正是由于他们的这种做法和80年代后体制的变化。由于他们在这段时间采取的行动,他们开始了集体的倒退。
历史是一本开放的书,成为发达国家并不是什么秘密,因为有十几个国家做到了,而且几乎所有国家都是以类似的方式(因为很明显不可能完全精确复制)做到的。
而在这些国家里“没有一个”是按照80年代后的美英的方式或印度的方式(尼赫鲁之后)做到的。

Ornery-Bite

Japan has in grained culture to be disciplined and work to their bones.China is dictatorial so much easier to enact refo rms.South korea was uplifted due to the synergy between Chaebols and the ruling govt.
While India is corrupt because people lack faith in the system and repulsed by the idea of re-investing here.So they lootbefore things go south which only makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.Just look at what happened to farm laws;the midd le men ran it to the ground.
日本的文化是训练有素、拿命去工作。中国是独裁国家,所以改革要容易得多。韩国的幅起是由于韩国财阀和执政政府之间的协同作用。
而印度之所以腐败,是因为人们对这个体制缺乏信心,对在这里重新投资的想法感到厌恶。因此,他们在事情发生之前就进行掠夺,这只会让事情变成自我实现的预言。看看农场法的情况就知道了;领导层和农民之间的官僚把它搞得一塌糊涂。

getsnoopy

Actually,just opening up the economy could easily double the GDP.But if there’s any hope of growing larger than that,t hen yes,we’d have to carefully plan and allocate resources toward(native-language)education,healthcare,etc.
实际上,仅仅是开放经济就可以轻松地使GDP翻倍。但是,如果有任何希望比这更大的增长,那么是的,我们必须仔细计划并将资源分配给(母语)教育、医疗保健等。

Agelmar2

No human can plan an economy.Any man claiming that he has a magic plan to improve the economy is nothing but a tyrant in disguise.Open up the economy,watch it grow organically
没有人可以规划经济。任何声称自己有改善经济的神奇计划的人,都不过是伪装成暴君的人。只要开放经济,看着它野蛮生长就可以了。

Pitch-Blak

There is no magic plan,but just opening up and letting it grow organically doesn’t work.
Someone is supposed to be there to ensure that the economy doesn’t crash.
当然没有什么神奇的计划,但就这么开放和让它有野蛮生长是不行的。
应该有人在那里确保经济不会崩溃。

life_barbad

Deriding the whole field of economics with 1 comment.
There are great places to start to study economic theory and understand how markets and economies work.
The efficient market hypothesis is largely discredited now.As is trickle down economics and other”non-interventionist styles.
To build a strong economy you NEED to develop strong public institutions,social welfare schemes,policies for labour pro tection and not to mention,increase public expenditure in Healthcare,education and housing.
你用一条评论就贬低了整个经济学领域的研究。
你想要研究经济理论,了解市场和经济如何运作,有很多地方可以着手。
有效市场假说现在在很大程度上已经失去了信誉。正如涓滴经济学和其他推崇”不干预”的市场理论一样。
为了建立一个强大的经济,你必须发展强大的公共机构、社会福利计划、劳动保护政策,更不用说增加医疗、教育和住房方面的公共开支了。

Agelmar2

And yet none of those things work.India did build all those things.They are a complete waste of money.
然而,这些东西都没有什么卵用。印度确实建造了所有这些东西。但是它们完全是在浪费钱。

scionic

Spoken like a true idealist libertarian.Someone should shove economics 101 down your throat.
口气像个完完全全的理想主义自由主义者。应该来个人狠狠地把经济学基础知识塞进你的喉咙里。

Agelmar

I minored in economics thank you very much.Go pick up a book every now and then
我辅修了经济学,谢谢。偶尔拿本书看看吧你。

brownjitsu

Hate to break it to ya but india will never catch up to china.Look at the infrastructure in beijing and shanghai and com pare that to what india has.Its not even close.India needs major infrastructure investment and im not sure they can catc h up.
我不想打破你的美梦,但印度永远不会赶上中国。看看北京和上海的基础设施,并将其与印度的情况进行比较。它甚至无法接近。印度需要重大的基础设施投资,我不确定他们能赶上。

Bharat_Brat

india will never catch up to china
For real.Using OP’s data,in the past four years,China grew by another India and then some.China’s growth,$3.81 trill ion,is more than India’s sum total of $2.85 trillion.Words cannot express my frustrations when put into that perspective
I just want to laugh-cry,because all these worries about India falling into the middle income,lol,we have to be a midd le income country first!
As much as I hate to say it,alienating the West over cheap Russian oil is going to hurt our growth.
“印度永远也无法赶上中国”
确实是这样。正如OP列举的数据,在过去的四年里,中国又增长了一个印度还多。中国的增长,3.81万亿美元,比印度的2.85万亿美元的总和还要多。从这个角度来看,语言已经无法表达我的挫折感。
我想哭又想笑,哭,是因为所有这些关于印度会落入中等收入陷阱的担忧,笑,是我们必须先成为一个中等收入国家!
尽管我不想这么说,但因为俄罗斯的廉价石油而疏远西方,只会损害我们的经济增长。

getsnoopy

Well seeing as China can build a railway station in 9 hours while it takes something like g years in India,yeah,compari ng India to China is not an apt one.The goal should really be to reach a decent level of HDI or GDP(PPP)per capita.Reaching China’s level would require such a radical restructuring of government/policies and a kick in the rear of the econom y,society,and attitudes that it’s almost intractable.
看到中国可以在9个小时内建成一个火车站,而印度却需要9年左右的时间,是的,将印度与中国进行比较并不恰当。印度的目标应该是达到一个体面的人类发展指数或人均GDP(购买力平价)水平。想要达到中国的水平,则需要对政府/政策进行彻底的重组,并在经济、社会和态度方面进行改革,而这几乎是无解的。

xennialien

yeah,comparing India to China is not an apt one Yet we always do.
“将印度与中国进行比较并不恰当。”
然而我们老是这样

Ericcartmano618

Have you gone outside?India is building world class infrastructure now.Highway construction has hit almost 4okm/day andso many expressways are coming up(delhi mumbai expressway will be the worlds longest expressway and cut the travek time f rom 24 to 12 hours).Also a lot of airports are being made.Also both the dedicated freight coridoors will be operational b y the end of this year.Also we are upgrading a lot of our trains to vande bharat which is semi high speed and cut travel times.
你有出过家门吗?印度现在正在建设世界级的基础设施。公路建设几乎达到了40公里/天,许多高速公路正在建设中(德里-孟买高速公路将是世界上最长的高速公路,并将交通时间从24小时缩短到12小时),还有许多机场正在建设中。此外,两个专用货运通道将在今年年底前投入使用。还有,我们正在将许多列车升级为vande bharat,这是一种半高速列车,可以大大缩短旅行时间

life_barbad

Very honestly,it’s one thing to be optimistic and it’s another to be blind.
Yes no one is denying highways are being built But also you cannot deny that investment is lacking in basic public goods India is currently spending 60,000 crores on education and 90,000 crore on health.
This numbers are minuscule when compared to the investments other countries make in their economies.
非常诚实地讲,积极乐观是一回事,盲目乐观又是另一回事。
是的,没有人否认我们正在修建高速公路。但你也不能否认,我们在基本公共产品方面的投资是缺乏的。
印度目前在教育方面的支出是6万克若(注:为印度、巴基斯坦等国独特的货币计量单位、数量词,一克若等于一千万),在卫生方面的支出是9万克若。
与其他国家对其经济的投资相比,这个数字是微不足道的。

rajeshbhat ds

There is a bigger problem.All the gains from this growth is going to a very small percentage of the richest people.The government does not care because the salaries of the richest people keep moving to higher tax brackets and their tax colle ction is growing much faster than the economy.The public sector is shrinking and most of the private sectorjobs are real ly shitty.For the government,welfare is two orders of magnitude cheaper than giving permanent jobs.There is just too mu ch misery in the neoliberal economy.
还有一个更大的问题。这种增长的所有收益都流向了一小部分最富有的人。政府并不在意,因为最富有的人的工资不断向更高的税级移动,他们的税收增长速度远远超过经济增长速度。公共部门正在萎缩,大多数私营部门的工作都非常糟糕。对于政府来说,给一点福利比提供永久性工作岗位要便宜两个数量级。在新自由主义经济中,有太多的苦难。

ChequeMateX

Exactly,we have now Two Indias,post covid tech boom have allowed a section of tech savvy people earning in multi lakhs per month while the same covid recession have left the vast majority of Indians jobless,failing businesses,etc earningl ess in a year what these techies earn in a month.
没错,我们现在有两个印度,Covid之后的科技繁荣让一部分科技精英每月赚取几十万,而同样的Covid经济衰退让绝大多数印度人失业,企业倒闭,等等,一年的收入还不如这些科技人员一个月的收入。

rumi_shinigami

Agreed,wealth gap has grown a lot.Just passed by Ambani’s house today,military are surrounding it,mostly keeping away the local beggars who live on the payment.What a sight.
同意,贫富差距拉大了很多。今天刚路过安巴尼(注:印度富豪)的房子,军队正围着它,主要是为了防止住在附近的当地乞丐。多么壮观的景象啊。

xoogl3

“salaries”?
If you think the richest people in India(or really,any country)are living on salaries,you’re mistaken.The richest people are the wealthiest.They control assets and generate cash from those assets for their livelihood.The next tier down are the top corporate execs etc.who make salaries(and hefty stock based compensations).Then the tier that you’re thinki ng of…the tech people making”merely”lakhs per month.
“工资”?
如果你认为印度(或者任何国家)最富有的人是靠工资生活,那你就错了。最富有的人拥有最多财富的人。他们控制着资产,并通过这些资产产生现金来维持生计。再往下是企业的高层管理人员,他们靠工资(和高额的股票报酬)为生。然后才是你说的那一层每月”仅仅”赚几十万的技术人员。

ConfidentMedia5408

I’m increasingly seeing more and more of my friends becoming very divorced from reality as their net worth increases.Mostof us are in the 40-50+ LPA bracket and there is increasingly a sense among them that*all*of India is doing equally weWhen I remind them that 7/10 Indians still live in villages,and that outside the major metros and Tier-1 cities,life qu ality is abysmal,they just don’t get it.
我看到越来越多的朋友随着他们净资产的增加而变得非常脱离现实。我身边大多数人都在40-50+年收入范围内,他们中越来越多的人认为所有印度人都活得同样好。
当我提醒他们,7/10的印度人仍然生活在村庄里,而且在主要城市和一线城市之外,生活质量非常糟糕时,他们就是不相信。